OVERALL, March has been wetter than average across most of Victoria, rounding off a wet first quarter of 2022 for the state, especially across East Gippsland.
Much of Victoria's west was dry last week, but there were moderate falls in parts of the Alps and East Gippsland. The focus for rainfall in Victoria for the week ahead is over the east again, with much of the north-west likely to miss out.
Root zone soil moisture is above-average for this time of year across most of Victoria, especially parts of the west and East Gippsland.
High streamflows are likely at most forecast sites across eastern Victoria during the remaining weeks of autumn to May.
Nights have been much warmer than average during March, but days were close to average in most parts, tending to above average in the north-west and below average in East Gippsland.
For January to March overall, maximum temperatures were warmer than average across western and central Victoria, while minimum temperatures were very much warmer than average across most of the state.
Looking at the state of our climate drivers, the 2021-22 La Nina event has weakened slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight.
Climate outlooks indicate a return to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels-neither La Nina nor El Nino-late in the southern hemisphere autumn.
Even as La Nina weakens, it can continue to provide a wet influence on Australia's weather and climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and typically has little influence on Australia's climate between December and April due to the position of the monsoon trough. International climate models expect the Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral for the remainder of autumn.
Australia's temperature and rainfall variability are also influenced by global warming caused by human activities.
Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910-2020 period. In recent decades, southern Australia has seen an overall reduction of 10-20 per cent in cool season (April-October) rainfall.
Consistent with the weakening La Nina, the latest outlook for April shows above average rainfall is likely across northern Victoria and the south-east, tending to a neutral outlook in the south-west.
The outlook for May is neutral for almost the whole state, with no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
