Showers and storms occurred across eastern Victoria last week, with more than 50 millimetres of rain recorded in parts of the north east in the seven days to January 18.
This included 91mm at Dartmouth Reservoir.
Drier conditions are forecast for most of Victoria this week, with the chance of rain from the west increasing from Sunday.
Rain across western Victoria could help lift soil moisture in the region, which is below average in parts for this time of year.
Root zone soil moisture remains above average for January in the north east and East Gippsland.
The rainfall outlook for February to April, issued on January 13, shows western Victoria and neighbouring parts of South Australia with reduced chance of above average rainfall.
Parts of eastern New South Wales and north east Queensland are likely to be wetter than average for February to April, and - apart from western Tasmania - most of the rest of Australia has a neutral outlook.
The one-month and three-month rainfall and temperature outlooks are updated each Thursday on the Bureau of Meteorology's website.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin are 90.4 per cent full as of January 18, which is up 34.4pc on the same time last year.
Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 54.0pc full, compared to 40.1pc full 12 months ago.
The water level in the Hume Dam remains high at 98pc full as of January 16.
Following mixed rainfall in December, with very dry conditions in the west contrasting with very wet conditions in the east, streamflows for January to March 2022 are likely to be high at forecast sites along rivers in Victoria's east, tending to near-median or even low streamflows at sites in the west.
Days are likely to be warmer than average this February to April in Victoria's west, centre and south - and tending to cooler than average in East Gippsland.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average across the whole state.
The La Nina event in the tropical Pacific is near or at its peak and continues to provide a wet influence to some parts of the country.
Climate models show the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to return to neutral (neither La Nina or El Nino) early in autumn.
The timing is not unusual, with ENSO events typically decaying during autumn.
La Nina events increase the chances of above-average summer rainfall.
