Buoyant feedlot enquiry and northern restocking orders are expected to underpin January's weaner cattle selling series as tens of thousands of cattle from across Victoria head to the saleyards.
As cattle prices and indicators continue to break weekly records, farmers will truck their calves to market on the back of one of the best seasons in more than 20 years.
Widespread rain, combined with a mild start to summer, along with already impressive cattle prices, have analysts scratching their heads as to how high prices could go after drought-breaking rain continues to flood parts of NSW and Queensland.
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Seasonal conditions in the north-east around Wodonga and Wangaratta and further south near Yea are on par with some of the best seasons in two decades, and while conditions are starting to dry out in the far west of the state, tremendous weight gains on young calves have agents and graziers alike quietly confident.
In a new move generally welcomed by major buyers, the 23 markets will be divided over two weeks with sales at Wodonga, Wangaratta, Colac, Mortlake and Naracoorte, SA, held between January 5 and 7.
In the second week of January, 15 sales will be held across the state in just five days including at Hamilton, Casterton, Yea, Kyneton, Euroa, Wodonga, Pakenham, Mortlake, and Naracoorte.
In previous years, sales in the western district and north-east ran simultaneously in the first week of the year.
Meat & Livestock Australia market information manager Stephen Bignell said the strength and high beef prices for weaner cattle would hinge largely on weather conditions in the north over the Christmas break.
"It's really going to depend on whether Queensland gets rain over Christmas and if that translates to restocker demand," Mr Bignell said.
"At the moment, restockers are making up 40 per cent of the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) market and they're paying a 150 cents a kilogram premium compared to feeders.
"Regardless, I expect they will remain to be strong because of the feed and demand we're currently seeing."
He said a three-week break between store markets in Victoria would also allow buyers to "re-calibrate" ahead of the weaner sales in January.
"There might be a period where producers consider the prices they're paying and where the market is going," he said.
"There's a lot of feed around and producers can put a lot of weight on with additional kilograms, so restockers are still seeing a margin in the young cattle sector.
"If you're buying young cattle, you can either sell them as heavy beasts or feed steers and the feeder steer indicator is at an all-time record so if that market stays up, then producers can buy young cattle at EYCI prices and sell them into the feeder market at a profit."
Mecardo market analyst Angus Brown said cattle prices would likely remain strong into 2022, and be on par with other sales across the state in recent weeks where feature autumn-drop calves have already been sold.
"It was very strong last year but with the way weaners are selling online and in the saleyards at the moment, we're definitely headed for a record come January," Mr Brown said.
"That $2000 a head mark seems to be about where it will be at, moving either way based on weight.
"And lighter cattle are making really good cents a kilogram prices, upwards of 600-700c/kg liveweight and even more for the lighter end.
"Feeders are making $2500 and those buying the weaner cattle will work on their $300-$400 a head margin that allows them $2100 to spend which comes back to 700c/kg for a 300kg steer."
Like other market commentators, Mr Brown said the market would be determined by a combination of influences, including demand by northern buyers.
"It's a combination of rain with La Nina through the east coast which means there's plenty of grass in NSW and Queensland, which drives demand for store stock," he said.
"That's underpinned by the beef export market which was stronger in November and drives the finished end which in turn drives feeder and store cattle prices."
North-east Victorian agent and Corcoran Parker director Kevin Corcoran, Wodonga, said he expected significant demand from northern buyers looking to restock to underpin many of the sales.
"There's a big patch of Australia that we cannot underestimate due to that sustained drought that occurred in NSW and Queensland for 10 years," Mr Corcoran said.
"Buyers are still desperate for cattle in those areas.
"In our region, we haven't had significant droughts here for years so people have retained their cows and they're going to sell the weaners of them at more than $2000 a head without a doubt."
Yea Elders livestock manager Jamie Quinlan said repeat buyers looking to secure even, well-bred lines of breeders' cattle would also be on the hunt come January.
"We have got a lot of people who come back and buy the same calves every year and that's because we have a good section of bullock fatteners who support our local breeders," Mr Quinlan said.
"South Gippslanders also come up and buy a lot of cattle from our sales and our cattle also frequently go into South Australia, and after speaking to several major buyers, I expect that to be the case next year."
In the western district, Kerr & Co branch manager Craig Pertzel, Hamilton, said seasonal conditions had dried off in recent weeks, but cattle would still present in forward condition for the sales.
"I think most of the steers will be covered in that $2000-$2500 a head mark," Mr Pertzel said.
"In terms of weights, our sales over the last several years have averaged around that 350kg range and we don't expect that to change all that much this year.
"They might be a fraction heavier."