LIGHT rain was forecast for most of Victoria this week and showers for southern and mountain areas on Wednesday as a cold front crossed the state.
A severe weather warning for damaging winds associated with the front was issued for parts of the south-west and central districts, extending into the north-east and Gippsland.
After a wet June, mixed July and a typical start to August rainfall for much of Victoria, most of the state is on track for near average winter rainfall totals.
July's rainfall removed an area of short term severe rainfall deficiency, beginning in February 2021 across much of the Mallee.
Further north, it has been a wetter than average winter for much of inland New South Wales.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin were 79.2 per cent full as of August 10; the highest they have been since January 2017 (following the last negative Indian Ocean Dipole climate event in 2016).
Several storages in the Murray-Darling Basin are at, or near, full accessible capacity. Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 41.3pc full, up 4.4pc on the same time last year.
Soil moisture is very much above average for parts of central and north-east Victoria for this time of year. Spring rainfall is expected to be above average in those same areas.
High stream flows are likely for most forecast locations across Victoria for August to October. Wet soils increase the risk of high runoff and flooding from further rain. Stay up to date with the latest weather warnings at www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings
The rainfall outlook for September to November shows above average rainfall is likely across Victoria with the highest chances (80pc) in the north, extending into the central and eastern parts of the state.
Spring maximum temperatures are likely to be above average along the coast, tending to below average in the Mallee. Minimum temperatures are very likely (80pc chance) to be higher than normal for much of the state.
The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to continue for spring.
The negative IOD event is increasing the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for parts of southern and eastern Australia.
While the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, some climate models (including the Bureau's) show La Nina development is possible during spring. This is likely contributing to the wetter than average outlooks for much of the country.