JULY was wetter than average for most of western and north-eastern Victoria, but rainfall was below average for Gippsland and around Port Phillip Bay.
while in contrast, large parts of Gippsland had totals in the driest 10pc of records for July.
The mixture of areas of above and below average rainfall combined to make the state's overall rainfall close to average.
Night-time temperatures were warmer than average across Victoria away from the north-west. Daytime temperatures were mostly close to average, except in parts of the Mallee, Gippsland and Central districts where they were warmer than average.
Root zone soil moisture is generally average to above average for most of Victoria for this time of year and is particularly high around parts of the south-west, southern central and north-east.
Parts of north-east Victoria have high chances of above median rainfall from August-October.
High stream flows are likely for some forecast locations in central and eastern Victoria in the coming months.
Some water storages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin are at, or near, capacity (Blowering, Burrinjuck) and others are filling quickly (Hume is 82pc full).The chance of widespread flooding in south-eastern Australia in the months ahead is more likely than compared to most years.
August to October is likely to be wetter than average across much of eastern Australia, including parts of Victoria away from the south coast.
At the same time, days are likely to be warmer than average across Victoria except for the north-west, and nights are very likely (80pc chance) to be warmer than average across virtually the whole state.
A couple of key climate drivers are contributing towards the wetter outlook.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway and likely to continue through spring. The negative IOD event, and above average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean more generally, are increasing the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for parts of southern and eastern Australia.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral but three of seven models surveyed by the Bureau show the Pacific Ocean will reach La Nina thresholds in spring with the remaining four models staying neutral.
Along with the negative IOD, this may be contributing to the wetter than median climate outlooks in Australia.
