WET weather for Victoria this week is forecast to bring showers and rain to parts of the state.
Even with the expected rainfall, this first half of July is tracking drier than average for most of Victoria.
The exceptions are the parts of the south-west extending into the Wimmera and across the north-east where rainfall has been closer to average for the month so far.
The drier than average first half of July follows a wet June for most of the state, however June rainfall was mixed across the north-west.
Root zone soil moisture is below average for this time of year along most of the Victorian border with South Australia, especially in the Mallee.
In contrast, soil moisture is above average across central Gippsland and an area west of Melbourne and close to average for most of the rest of the state.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin are 68.0 per cent full, up from 45.5pc this time last year. Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.4pc full, compared to 36.0pc 12 months ago.
Looking ahead, rainfall during August to October is very likely (80pc chance) to be above average across much of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia.
The high chances extend into northern Victoria but the outlook is more neutral for parts of the south and south-east.
At the same time, days are likely to be warmer than average for most of the state while nights are likely to be warmer than average state-wide.
Our two main seasonal climate drivers, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are both influencing the wet outlook.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is likely for winter into spring.
The emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, and a warmer than average eastern Indian Ocean more generally, are increasing the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for parts of southern and eastern Australia.
While the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, most climate models forecast tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures to cool over the coming months, and four of the seven surveyed models (including the Bureau's) show a La Nina is possible during spring.
The increased chance of La Nina is contributing to the wetter than average outlooks for parts of the country. La Nina typically leads to above average rainfall for eastern and central parts of Australia.
- Jonathan Pollock, BoM climatologist
