Rainfall since the start of July has exceeded 25 millimetres for much of Victoria's south west and north east regions, and there were higher totals along the coast and in the Alps.
But there has been little rain so far this month for the north west and parts of the south east.
June 2021 rainfall was mixed for areas of western Victoria, and in the neighbouring areas of south west New South Wales and central eastern South Australia.
These parts are experiencing short-term - about five-month - rainfall deficiencies and July falls were not enough to provide widespread relief.
Although, some areas had an easing in the extent and severity of their deficiencies.
During the past month, plant root zone soil moisture - which is the moisture in the top 100 centimetres of soil - has increased across much of southern mainland Australia.
But soil moisture remained below average for western Victoria, south west NSW and south east SA, even though June rainfall across these regions reduced the area and extent of below average soil moisture.
Looking ahead, August to October rainfall is likely to be above average across northern Victoria, and tending to a neutral forecast for parts of the south and south east.
Days are likely to be warmer than average for most of Victoria, except the Mallee.
Nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the state.
The main driver of the wetter outlook is an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which is likely for late winter into spring.
During a negative IOD event, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are significantly warmer than those in the tropical western Indian Ocean.
When an event develops, the pattern can sometimes sustain itself until the end of spring.
A negative IOD typically brings above average winter and spring rainfall to parts of southern Australia.
Even if the sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean does not go on to meet the criteria for a negative IOD event, warmer than average sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and in the eastern Indian Ocean are likely to persist in the coming months.
This would typically enhance rainfall across Australia.
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin are 66.5 per cent full as of July 6.
This is the highest the levels have been since January 2018.
Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 37.5pc full, which is close to the same level of 12 months ago.
