Parts of the Mallee had their first drop of April rain on Tuesday, although it did not extend into the far north west.
More rainfall is forecast for the week ahead, and the highest totals are likely to be over parts of Victoria's south.
The last week of April is expected to be drier than average across the south east of the mainland, including Victoria.
Away from the south, the rest of the state is on-track to have a drier than average April.
Year-to-date rainfall is close to average for much of the state, with pockets of above average in the east and centre.
Most of the north west and along the border with South Australia has been drier than average.
Root zone soil moisture is reflective of the recent rainfall. It is very much below average across the north west and tending to average to above average for most of the rest of the state.
Storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin were 56.9 per cent full as of 20 April, which is up 22.7 per cent from the same time last year.
Storage levels in the South East Coast (Victoria) division are 39.7 per cent full, which is up 6.5 per cent during the past 12 months.
Looking further ahead, May is likely to be drier than average for parts of Victoria.
The forecast dry pattern expands and strengthens to cover much of the state in June.
The three-month outlook for May to July favours below average rainfall across most of Victoria, except for parts of the Mallee, around Cape Otway and Central and East Gippsland - where there is no clear signal toward wetter or drier conditions.
The temperature outlook for May is mostly neutral, but June is tipped to bring above average daytime temperatures statewide and above average night-time temperatures across the south and east.
Out in the Pacific, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral.
All of the international climate models that the Bureau of Meteorology compares are indicating a neutral ENSO phase for winter, meaning there are no signs of El Nino or La Nina developing.
A neutral ENSO phase means other climate drivers may have more influence on our seasonal conditions.
Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44°C (plus or minus 0.24°C) during the period 1910-2019.
In recent decades, southern Australia has seen a general reduction of 10-20 per cent in cool season (April to October) rainfall.
- Jonathan Pollock, Bureau of Meteorology climatologist
