THE La Nina that formed in September last year is over.
Most of the signs in the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it that the Bureau of Meteorology monitors are pointing to a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Sea surface temperatures along the equator are close to normal and the monthly air pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti is near average.
These changes are in line with the forecasts from climate models around the world, which have been predicting a return to a neutral ENSO during autumn.
The timing is also typical of the life cycle of ENSO events. All models indicate ENSO will remain neutral until at least the end of winter.
The numbers are still coming in but rainfall in March was above average for Victoria overall and likely the wettest since 2012.
Gippsland and parts of the Northern Country and North-central districts were wetter than average with small areas in the wettest 10 per cent of years on record.
In contrast, parts of north-west Victoria recorded less than 10mm for the month.
Last week's wild weather gave some sites their highest March daily rainfall on record, including Bairnsdale Airport, Mount Baw Baw and Mallacoota.
The extra cloud kept maximum temperatures cooler than average during March while minimum temperatures were close to average for most parts.
Root-zone soil moisture is average to above average for most of Victoria.
However, the root-zone moisture in parts of the west it remains drier than usual for this time of year.
Parts of north-east New South Wales had their wettest March on record.
March 2021 is tracking second wettest on record for New South Wales overall and fourth wettest on record for the Murray-Darling Basin.
There has already been a positive effect on water storage levels.
As of March 31, water storage levels for the entire Murray-Darling Basin were 57pc full, up 3.3pc increase over the past month.
There has been a stronger response in the basin's north.
The chance of above average rain in April ranges from around 55pc-65pc across the state - slightly increased chances compared to normal.
But there is no guarantee of a wet month.
At the same time, days are likely to be cooler than average in the north while nights are likely to be warmer than average for parts of the south and west.
