THE autumn break can mean the first decent soaking after summer and coincides with seasonal changes in our southern weather patterns.
One of the ways the Bureau of Meteorology monitors seasonal weather is by comparing recent rainfall with a threshold to see where the autumn break has occurred.
The Bureau can then assess how much earlier or later the break has arrived than it has in the past.
As we move further into autumn, some farmers will be looking for the first significant rainfall event (more than 25 mm within the space of a few days or more than 30 mm over a week) that can mark the start of the winter cropping and pasture growing season.
Parts of Victoria's east, elevated sites and exposed parts of the south typically reach the threshold during March.
It usually takes until early May for the autumn break to arrive in parts of central Victoria (typically mid-May in Bendigo) and later for the main cropping region in the north-west.
There is a lot of variability in the timing of the autumn break from year to year.
Last year, the autumn break arrived early for parts of south-eastern Australia (thanks to ex-tropical cyclone Esther) but generally in recent decades it has been arriving later than normal for many parts of the state.
For example, the average date to pass the autumn break rainfall threshold at Rutherglen occurs around a fortnight later than it did a century ago.
Likewise, autumn has been getting drier - only five out of the last 30 March to May periods were wetter than the long-term average in south-eastern Australia.
In the first half of March, much of Victoria's south-east had more than 25 mm of rain while the north-west had less than 10 mm.
There is not much rain about this week but there are increased chances of above average rainfall for the state at the end of March and beginning of April.
Parts of eastern, central and southern Victoria have slightly increased chances for a wetter than average April tending to a neutral outlook for the north-west.
The outlook for May shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month for the state.
The fading wet signal coincides with the 2020-21 La Nina's declining influence. Climate models expect the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific will return to neutral (neither La Nina nor El Nino) during autumn.
