ALTHOUGH Victoria had a wet summer overall, the western half of the state had a drier than average February and some extra rainfall in March would be welcome in some parts.
The good news is March is likely to be wetter than average across Victoria and for the southern half of Australia.
Chances of a wetter than average month are even higher across New South Wales extending into southern Queensland.
There is no strong push towards above or below average rainfall for most of Victoria during April.
Some parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland have slightly increased chances of above average April rainfall but elsewhere the outlook is neutral.
The change in rainfall outlooks from March to April reflects the expected change in one of our major climate drivers, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Victoria's wetter than average summer was due in part to the current La Nina in the Pacific. The 2020-21 La Nina has passed its peak and is now weakening.
Climate models expect the El Nino-Southern Oscillation will return to neutral (neither La Nina nor El Nino) during autumn, which is typical timing for an event to finish.
As the La Nnia retreats, so too will its influence on our rainfall and temperature patterns.
With the extra cloud cover, daytime temperatures are likely to remain cooler than average during March.
But April's shift to a neutral rainfall outlook sees a corresponding shift in the maximum temperature outlook with close to even chances of warmer than average days for most parts of Victoria.
The minimum temperature outlook for march is neutral but there are slightly increased chances of warmer than average nights in April for much of the state.
As of March 9, water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin are 56.1pc full, up 23.3pc on 12 months ago.
Water storage levels in the South East Coast drainage division, which covers southern Victoria, are 41.1pc full, 6.1pc higher than the same time last year.
Root zone soil moisture for March so far is tracking above average in the north-east and parts of the south but it is below average in parts of central and western Victoria and East Gippsland.
Soil moisture is below average for parts of western New South Wales but above average for much of the east (especially the north-east) and very much below average for parts of western and eastern Queensland.
