Much of western Victoria is close to, or has passed, its average October rainfall after heavy falls last week.
It has been a wet spring so far for the south west, with more than 100 millimetres recorded in the gauge along parts of the coast for October to date - and following a wetter than average September in the area.
But September was very dry in central Gippsland and, while this region missed out on the lion's share of last week's rainfall, there is more rain on the way for eastern Victoria this week.
The rest of October is looking wetter than average for much of the eastern two thirds of Australia, including northern and eastern Victoria.
But the signal is much stronger over parts of north eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland than it is over Victoria.
The rainfall outlook for November to January shows most of Australia is likely to be wetter than average.
For Victoria, the highest chances of above average rainfall are across the north and north east.
Days are likely to be warmer than average along the coast and in parts of central and western Victoria, while nights are very likely - with a more than 80 per cent chance - to be warmer than average for the whole state.
A La Nina pattern in the tropical Pacific is the main culprit for the wet outlook.
The indicators climatologists look for in the oceans and the atmosphere - including sea surface temperatures, trade winds, pressure patterns and cloudiness - are showing coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. This increases the chance of La Nina lasting for several months.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been bouncing around lately.
This means that, although we've seen a negative IOD pattern at times in recent months, it hasn't been consistent.
The chance of a full-blown negative IOD event this year has declined - noting that the IOD typically breaks down in late spring or early summer.
Both La Nina and negative IOD events typically increase the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring - with La Nina's wet influence extending into summer for eastern Australia.
After Victoria's recent rain, root zone soil moisture is mostly average to above average across the state for this time of year.
High soil moisture, combined with a wet outlook, increases the risk of flooding in the months ahead.
In Australia, flooding is the second most deadly natural disaster after heatwaves.