Spring rain outlook welcome across much of Victoria

A warm and windy start to spring

Weather
Victorians may be in for some windy conditions in the coming months. PHOTO: Morgan Hancock

Victorians may be in for some windy conditions in the coming months. PHOTO: Morgan Hancock

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A warm and windy start to spring is likely according to the BoM.

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The start of the week saw balmy conditions and a severe weather warning for Victoria's southern and mountain districts.

Overnight temperatures were generally 8-10°C above average and several sites recorded wind gusts over 100 kilometres per hour.

The last fortnight in September is likely to be wetter than average for much of South Australia, New South Wales, southern Queensland and northern Victoria.

The outlook for October shows high chances - of above 80 per cent - of above average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, including parts of Victoria.

And the wet weather is likely to stick around, with the three month outlook for October to December also favoring above average rainfall over eastern Australia.

October to December days are likely to be warmer than average in the south, and nights are very likely - with a greater than 80 per cent chance - to be warmer than average across Victoria.

The wet outlook will be welcome news for much of Victoria.

Root zone soil moisture is very much below average in parts of the south west and average to below average in most other parts, except the far east - where it remains very much wetter than average.

An increased chance of La Nina developing in the coming months is driving the wet outlook for the eastern two-thirds of Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology's El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook remains at La Nina 'alert', meaning the chance of La Nina forming in 2020 is about 70 per cent - or roughly three times the average likelihood.

While year-to-date rainfall is above average for West Gippsland and central Victoria from the NSW border to the south coast, it is close to average in other parts and below average along the south west coast.

January, February and April, especially, were very wet for most of the state.

But winter was drier than usual across Victoria away from East Gippsland.

Year-to-date rainfall has been above average across parts of southern Queensland and central and eastern NSW.

Water storage in the Murray-Darlin Basin is 55.1 per cent full, up 13.5 per cent compared to this time last year.

Water storage in the South East Coast division, which covers southern and eastern Victoria, is 39.3 per cent full, which is up 4.8 per cent on this time last year.

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