Chance of developing La Nina driving likelihood of wet spring

Wet and warm spring on the cards

It could be wet roads ahead in coming months.

It could be wet roads ahead in coming months.


A wet spring outlook is being driven by an increased chance of a La Nina pattern forming.


The latest spring rainfall outlook is still showing high chances - greater than 80 per cent - of above average rainfall for north-west Victoria.

Most of the rest of the state is likely to have a wetter than average spring too, except for the far south west -where there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months ahead.

The outlook for September now shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month for most of the state.

Spring days are likely to be warmer than average in most parts, except the north west.

Most of Victoria, and Australia, has a very high chance - above 80 per cent - of warmer than average nights this spring.

The wet spring outlook is being driven by an increased chance of a La Nina pattern forming in the coming months.

La Nina typically brings more rainfall to Australia's east and north.

There is no guarantee La Nina will occur, but recently there have been more signs of it developing.

These include: further cooling in tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures; stronger trade winds at times; and an increasing pressure difference between the central and the western tropical Pacific Ocean.

Winter was drier than average for most of the state, except for East Gippsland - where several coastal lows brought heavy rainfall.

Average daytime temperatures were warmer than usual in central and eastern Victoria, and for parts of the south west.

But there were still some very cold days. Mildura Airport had its coldest winter day on record (75 years), reaching only 7.6°C on July 8.

Winter nights were much cooler than average across the north west and much warmer than average in East Gippsland.

Walpeup Research had its coldest winter night on record (54 years), dropping down to -2.2°C on August 5.

August 2020 rainfall was a mixed bag for south east Australia.

Northern South Australia, south west Queensland and north west New South Wales were all very much wetter than average - in the wettest 10 per cent of records.

There was also above average rainfall over East Gippsland and south east Tasmania.

But there were areas of below average rainfall in north east Victoria, around the SA and Victorian border and in north west Tasmania.

But winter overall was drier than average for southern SA, and most of Victoria and Tasmania - except around Hobart - due to a very dry June and July.


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