Opening of the heavens likely to continue for weeks to come

State set for more rain in spring

Weather
Wet paddocks are welcome across many regions of Victoria and there is more to come, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Wet paddocks are welcome across many regions of Victoria and there is more to come, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

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Latest seasonal outlooks point to a wet spring 2020 for most of Australia's eastern inland.

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Persistent rainfall during the past week is lifting August totals closer to average levels in central Victoria.

But East Gippsland again recorded the lion's share - with parts of the state's far east currently sitting on more than 100 millimetres for the month to date.

And the wet weather is expected to continue.

The latest seasonal outlooks show spring 2020 is very likely to be wetter than average for most of the eastern inland two thirds of Australia.

The monthly outlooks for September and October show high chances - of greater than 80 per cent - of above average rainfall for northern Victoria.

Chances gradually reduce to the south, but are still greater than 60 per cent.

Spring days are likely to be cooler than average in Victoria's north west.

But nights are likely to be warmer than average across the state.

The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook has been raised to La Nina 'alert'.

This means the chance of La Nina developing in the coming months is about 70 per cent, which is about triple of the normal risk.

The stronger outlook follows further cooling in the central tropical Pacific Ocean - and stronger than normal trade winds during the past fortnight.

These are typical signs of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere in a developing La Nina.

Stronger trade winds act to raise sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.

That leads to extra cloudiness and rainfall north of Australia, which typically results in above average rainfall over eastern and central parts of the country.

Turning to the west, half of the international climate models show sea surface temperature patterns developing into a negative Indian Ocean Dipole during spring.

Like La Nina, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event typically increases the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia during winter and spring.

Winter so far has been drier than average over central and western Victoria, and wetter than average for much of East Gippsland.

Winter - to date - maximum temperatures are up to 1°C above the historical (1961-1990) average around Melbourne and the north east, and closer to average in most other parts.

Nights have been very much colder than average in the north west. But in East Gippsland, conversely, nights have been much warmer than average.

Although parts of the south had a wet winter in 2019, Victoria hasn't had widespread above average winter rainfall totals since 2016.

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