Forecasts point to a mixed rainfall outlook but high chances of warmer weather on the coast

Wet and warmer spring very likely

If you are sick of cold mornings, you will welcome weather forecasts of warmer spring conditions.

If you are sick of cold mornings, you will welcome weather forecasts of warmer spring conditions.


Wet and warm spring very likely for coastal areas, according to forecasts.


It has been a drier than average August so far in Victoria's south, with most of the action being north of the border.

Crop root zone soil moisture is below average for much of the south west and parts of the north east, but above average across most of Central and East Gippsland.

Notably, Central and East Gippsland - along with the Mallee - are the only parts of Victoria in severe rainfall deficiency (in the lowest 5 per cent of records) for the past 28 months.

For that same period of April 2018 to July 2020, parts of southern Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and southern Queensland are the driest on record.

The latest outlook for spring shows high chances (of greater than 80 per cent) for a wetter than average spring for most of the eastern half of Australia.

The high chances extend into northern and central Victoria, but reduce gradually towards the state's south west and south east.

There is light on the horizon if you are sick of the cold mornings.

The spring outlook is showing high chances that nights will be warmer than average over most of the country, including Victoria, except for parts of WA.

But don't put away the doona yet. There is still a 'normal' chance of colder nights for parts of Victoria's west and south for the rest of August and September.

Minimum temperatures were more than 8°C lower than average for parts of the north west on August 5 and 6, which triggered record low August daily minimum temperatures at several stations - including Horsham, Swan Hill and Nhill.

Spring days are likely to be warmer than average along the coast, and cooler than average in the north west.

The area of south east Australia forecast to have cooler days aligns with the area with the highest chance of above average rainfall.

One of the main reasons for the wet outlook is signs that the Pacific Ocean might be shifting into a La Nina phase.

During La Nina, the trade winds strengthen and push warmer surface waters towards the north of Australia.

The warmer sea surface temperatures enhance cloudiness and rainfall and typically lead to above average rainfall for eastern and central Australia.


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