Forecasters are watching for La Nina to deliver spring rains

Gippsland escapes a dry July but most of Victoria not so lucky

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Crops across much of Victoria could do with more winter rain, but are likely to benefit from a good finish if forecasted wetter spring conditions eventuate.

Crops across much of Victoria could do with more winter rain, but are likely to benefit from a good finish if forecasted wetter spring conditions eventuate.

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BoM is on a La Nina 'watch' which may bring much needed spring rain for the state's crops.

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July rainfall is on track to be very much below average for large parts of Victoria.

But, in stark contrast, rainfall for Central and East Gippsland has been above to very much above average for this month.

Most of the southern half of Australia has been drier than average this July, except for parts of Gippsland and the New South Wales coast - where heavy rainfall triggered several minor flood warnings to be issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in the past week.

Winter so far has been dry in western and central Victoria, and close to average in Central and East Gippsland.

Due to a wet start to the year, rainfall to date for 2020 is above average for central Victoria and West Gippsland and close to average for most other parts.

Days were warmer than average this July, especially in the north east of the state.

Nights ranged from very much colder than average in the north west, through to very much warmer than average in the far east.

The rainfall outlook for August shows roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for most of Victoria.

But there are signs that it could be drier than usual in the south west.

As we move into spring, the chance of above average rainfall for Victoria increases.

The outlook for September to November shows high chances - of greater than 80 per cent - for a wetter than average three months for parts of the north east.

This reduces to slightly increased chances for above average rainfall in the far south west and far east.

Days and nights are very likely - a greater than 80 per cent chance - to be warmer than average during August for most areas of the state.

The three-month temperature outlook for the spring months of September to November shows days are likely to be warmer than average across southern Victoria, and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across the whole state.

The BoM's ENSO Outlook is at La Nina 'watch', meaning the chance of La Nina developing in the coming months is about 50 per cent - which is about double the normal risk.

About half of the major international climate models are favouring a negative Indian Ocean Dipole during spring.

The increased chance of either a La Nina, or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole - or both - is increasing the likelihood of a wetter than average spring for south east Australia, including Victoria.

The long-term warming trend is likely to be an influence on temperature patterns in the coming months.

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