Wet week provides reprieve for dry areas

Rainfall relief for Gippsland areas and more to come in spring

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Gauges were filling across parts of the state that received welcome rainfall during the past week.

Gauges were filling across parts of the state that received welcome rainfall during the past week.

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Rainfall relief for East Gippsland on the back of a wet weekend.

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Some sites in West Gippsland and many in south coastal areas of New South Wales recorded their wettest July day in at least 10 years during the past week.

Rainfall was received across Victoria's far east, targeting the only part of the state that was drier than average for the first six months of this year.

The extra cloud over the weekend kept overnight temperatures from dropping too far.

Some parts of the north and east recorded minimum temperatures of more than 4°C warmer than average.

Daytime temperatures have been typical across most of the state so far this July.

The weekend's rainfall will provide some relief to parts of East Gippsland and the NSW south coast that are in severe rainfall deficiency.

These regions are experiencing their driest 5 per cent of rainfall records over a longer - 27-month - timescale.

Water storages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin continue to fill.

The Murray River is receiving inflows from local and headwater catchments.

The second half of July is likely to be drier than average for Victoria.

But the latest outlook for August is showing increased chances of above average rainfall for the state's north in that month.

Should the climate pattern change from one favouring below average rainfall to one favouring above average rainfall, it's likely to stick around for a while.

The three-month outlook for August to October shows even stronger chances of above average rainfall in the north.

The temperature outlooks show days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of Victoria in the months ahead.

Climatologists at the Bureau of Meteorology keenly watch the Pacific and Indian Oceans for signs they could be moving into phases that typically impact on Australia's seasonal weather.

The current conditions in the Pacific Ocean, combined with latest updates from the computer models, indicate the chance of La Nina developing is about 50 per cent.

At the same time, climate models have gradually been backing away from earlier forecasts of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

Less than half of the surveyed models now predict a negative Indian Ocean Dipole will develop in 2020.

Both La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles increase the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia, including Victoria, during winter and spring.

- Jonathan Pollock, senior climatologist Bureau of Meteorology

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