After emerging from a dry June many parts of Victoria may be blessed with a wetter spring

Preliminary data points to dry winter but wetter spring

Weather
Aa

The data is still coming in, but - overall - June was drier than average for much of Victoria. Rainfall was below average across much of the state and especi...

Aa
Many parts of Victoria had a dry June and are set for a drier than average July, before the weather systems show potential to deliver some wetter conditions in August.

Many parts of Victoria had a dry June and are set for a drier than average July, before the weather systems show potential to deliver some wetter conditions in August.

The data is still coming in, but - overall - June was drier than average for much of Victoria.

Rainfall was below average across much of the state and especially in parts of the south.

Areas around Geelong, the Otways and Central Gippsland were very much drier than average.

Reduced cloud delivered temperatures that were warmer than average in the daytime, but meant nights were cooler than average.

There was a cold start to the month when a pair of cold fronts crossed Victoria, bringing gusty winds, some moderate rainfall and snow in the Alps (there was also snow recorded on June 22).

Following that was about 10 days of clear skies, with generally mild days and cold mornings.

Much of Victoria also had similar weather conditions in the final week of June..

Many parts of the state observed big areas of frost on June 9, when nighttime temperatures plummeted due to clear skies and light winds under a strong high pressure system.

The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was positive for much of June. A positive SAM during winter means the westerlies over the Southern Ocean contract towards the south pole and we typically get less rainfall than usual in parts of Victoria.

That explains some of the below average rainfall during June.

The SAM is expected to return to positive levels during early July. That is one of the reasons the outlook for July is drier than average for western Victoria, south eastern SA and parts of south west WA.

A lot of the dry signal is front-loaded into the first half of the month.

But the longer range, three-month outlook is being dominated by an increased chance of a La Nina in the coming months - along with some chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole around the same time.

Both La Nina and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically mean above average rainfall for much of Australia, including Victoria.

That's why the August to October outlook is favoring above average rainfall for parts of Victoria - and most of the country.

There is a high chance - greater than 80 per cent for most of the country - that daytime temperatures will be warmer than average in the months ahead.

While there's no strong push towards warmer or cooler than average nights for the first weeks of July, the one month and three-month outlooks show nights are also likely to be warmer than average over longer time periods.

Aa

From the front page

Sponsored by