Higher chances of late winter rain in northern areas but outlook less certain for the state's south

Wet outlook doesn't stretch south

Weather
The Bureau of Meteorology's July to September outlook indicates most of Australia is likely to be wetter than average, including northern Victoria, but the increased chances don't extend all the way south, meaning the rest of Victoria has a neutral outlook - at close to a 50:50 chance.

The Bureau of Meteorology's July to September outlook indicates most of Australia is likely to be wetter than average, including northern Victoria, but the increased chances don't extend all the way south, meaning the rest of Victoria has a neutral outlook - at close to a 50:50 chance.

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BoM's July-September outlook is wetter than average for northern Victoria, but less certain for the south.

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Rainfall for the first half of June has been close to average for parts of south west, central and north east Victoria.

Areas in the north west and south - and most of East Gippsland - have been drier than average so far this month, but there is rainfall on the way for most of south east Australia this weekend.

Looking further ahead, July is not showing a strong push toward either above or below average rainfall for Victoria.

The three-month outlook for July to September shows most of Australia is likely to be wetter than average, but the increased chances don't extend all the way south.

This indicates northern Victoria is likely to have a wetter than average July to September, but the rest of Victoria - and eastern Tasmania - has a neutral outlook - at close to a 50:50 chance.

Overall, days and nights are likely to be warmer than average this July. But the chances are only slightly higher than usual in some parts of the state.

The three-month outlook shows high chances - of greater than 80 per cent - of warmer than average days in parts of the north east district.

Nights, too, are likely to be warmer than average across Victoria - with higher chances in the east.

So, what is driving the 'wetter in the north, warmer in most parts' outlook for Victoria during July to September?

Despite some cooling in recent weeks in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, three of six international computer models surveyed regularly by the Bureau of Meteorology are still predicting that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could develop during winter.

And, to our east, recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean could be a sign of the early stages of a developing La Nina.

Some international models suggest we could be in a La Nina pattern in early spring.

Both La Nina and negative IOD events increase the likelihood of above average rainfall across much of Australia.

So, why doesn't southern Victoria share the same wet outlook as most of the mainland for July to September?

One factor is that, regardless of what ends up happening in the Indian or Pacific Oceans in the coming months, right now - to our south - the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) remains positive and is forecast to stay positive for the remainder of June - and possibly early July.

At this time of year, this typically brings drier than average conditions to much of southern Australia - including Victoria.

The result of all the competing influences is a neutral outlook for most of southern Victoria.

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