Good news for northern and central Victorian farmers this week, with predictions that most of their region has a higher than 70 per cent chance of receiving above average rainfall in June.
But the outlook for much of Gippsland is not as buoyant, with only a 50:50 liklihood of having a wetter than average month.
Looking further ahead, predictions for wetter than average conditions in Victoria increase slightly in July.
Parts of the north west appear very likely - with a more than 80 per cent chance - to have above average rainfall.
But again, much of Gippsland has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
The temperature outlook for Victoria this winter is consistent with the rainfall outlook.
Parts of the north west have a slightly higher chance of experiencing cooler days in the June to August period.
Days are likely to be warmer than average for parts of the east. But there is no strong push either way for the rest of the state.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average in most parts of the state, with extra cloud overnight stopping temperatures from rapidly dropping.
The highest likelihood of this occuring is in the north - and then the chance of warmer than average minimum temperatures drops gradually as you move further south.
Victoria's average rainfall forecast for June ranges from about 20 millimetres the north west, to more than 100mm in elevated areas and exposed parts of the south - and more than 200mm in parts of the Alps.
Typically, average rainfall is slightly higher for July in most locations.
Rainfall across Victoria usually increases during winter - and long-term average monthly rainfall tends to reach its highest peak in August.
The main drivers for the wet winter outlook in the state are the conditions in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology are predicting a negative Indian Ocean Dipole may develop in mid-winter.
The models also show signs of a La Nina-like pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean.
Both the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Nina increase the chances of having above average rainfall in most of Victoria.
Even if some of the indicators in the Pacific Ocean, or the atmosphere above it, don't exceed La Nina thresholds, parts of eastern Australia can still observe some La Nina-like effects, including enhanced rainfall.
