We can thank ex-tropical cyclone Esther for last week's heavy rainfall.
After looping around north-west WA at the end of February, the system brought extra moisture to south-east Australia.
Parts of central and northern Victoria recorded more than their typical March totals in the first week of the month.
Parts of the north-west received more than 25 millimetres, more than 50mm over parts of central Victoria, and more than 100mm in parts of the north-east.
The highest totals were at elevated sites; Mt Buffalo recorded 170mm in 24 hours.
What does this mean for the autumn break?
The autumn break is the first good rainfall after summer at the beginning of the southern growing season.
There are different criteria for the amounts and timing of the rain you need for an autumn break in different regions.
For parts of Victoria, 25mm or 30mm in the space of a few days to a week, after March 1 would typically qualify as an autumn break.
The autumn break usually arrives over eastern and southern Victoria during March and April, and the north-west during May.
Using the 25mm criteria, most of central, all of the north-east, and parts of north-west and south-east Victoria had their 2020 autumn break last week.
Root zone soil moisture is above average across most of the state.
Large parts of central, eastern, northern and north-western Victoria have very much above average root zone soil moisture (in the top 10 per cent of records).
The rainfall outlook for March 14-27 shows that parts of central and eastern Victoria are likely to be drier than average.
There are roughly equal chances for a wetter or drier than average April.
May is likely to be wetter than average in the west.
Most of the state has a fifty-fifty chance of above average rainfall in June.
Overall, the three-month outlook from April to June shows slightly increased chances of above average rainfall for parts of the west.
Maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average: in the north for the second half of March, in the far east during April, and across most of the state during May.
Minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in parts of the north and west for the second half of March, and across the state during April and May.
- Jonathan Pollock is a BoM climatologist.
