After good rainfall and milder temperatures last week, the heat returns this week with a heatwave warning for parts of southern Australia including Victoria.
The recent rainfall means month-to-date totals are close to average for much of the state, above average around Melbourne and central and western Gippsland, but western parts of the Mallee and eastern parts of East Gippsland are still drier than normal for January.
Last week's average daytime temperatures were a couple of degrees cooler than usual for this time of the year in parts of the north and west.
The summer heat has returned though, with above average temperatures in southern Western Australia at the start of the week shifting eastward and reaching Victoria.
The Bureau of Meteorology's 'Three-day Heatwave Forecast' is showing severe heatwave is likely for most of the state for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Severe heatwaves are challenging for some more vulnerable people, such as those over 65, pregnant women, babies and young children, and those suffering from a chronic illness.
February could start wet, but the climate outlook for the month overall isn't showing a strong push towards above or below average rainfall for Victoria.
The exception is a small part of the Mallee that is slightly more likely to have a wetter than average February.
The rainfall outlook for March is neutral, as are the three-month outlooks for February to April, and March to May.
That means there is a 50:50 chance of above average rainfall in the coming months.
The three-month rainfall outlooks are consistent with the neutral ENSO forecast for autumn.
Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average in February and autumn (March to May).
The greatest chances of above average temperatures are in the north-east, gradually reducing to the south-west.
2019 was Australia's warmest and driest year on record and soil moisture for the year was very much below average (bottom 10 per cent of records) over much of southern WA, the Northern Territory, South Australia and NSW.
The dry soils are helping keep temperatures above average into 2020.
Additionally, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
- Jonathan Pollock is a BoM climatologist