November 2019 so far has delivered Victoria some big temperature changes.
On average, days were cooler than usual for the beginning of November which might make this week's warm weather feel even more summery.
The higher temperatures are most likely temporary; the outlook for November 23-29 shows daytime temperatures are likely to be close to average for most of the state while nights are likely to be 1 to 2 degrees cooler than usual.
What's normal for November?
The average November maximum temperature for Victoria from 1961-90 was 22.6 degrees, and the average minimum temperature was 9.5 degrees.
The average rainfall was 51.7 millimetres.
As you might expect, November is normally warmer and drier in Mildura than it is in Warrnambool.
The long-term average November maximum temperatures at Mildura Airport and Warrnambool Airport are 27.7 and 20.6 degrees respectively, and the average rainfall totals are 26mm and 50.6mm.
But averaging rainfall and temperature patterns across the whole state allows us to rank and compare one year to the next for a larger area.
The average maximum temperature for Victoria in summer is 26.7 degrees, the minimum temperature is 12.7 degrees and rainfall is 119.2mm.
The Bureau's climate model shows this summer is very likely to be warmer than usual right across Victoria, and in fact across virtually all of Australia.
There are high chances of above average maximum temperatures, and nights too are likely to be warmer than average in the north and northeast.
The likelihood of warmer than average nights decreases in the south and west with those parts having roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than usual minimum temperatures over the coming season.
The rainfall outlook for summer shows most of Victoria has reduced chances of above average rainfall.
The exception is the northwest where the outlook is neutral with no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average season, however, there is a shift in the rainfall outlook for January compared to December.
While most of Victoria has less than 30 per cent chance of above average rainfall in December, that rises to around 50pc in January.
Visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks for the weekly and fortnightly maps (updated each Monday and Thursday).
- Jonathan Pollock is a climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology.
