Dry and warm October for most parts of Victoria

Dry and warm October for most parts of Victoria

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Daytime temperatures were the warmest since 2015 but night-time temperatures were generally close to average.

Daytime temperatures were the warmest since 2015 but night-time temperatures were generally close to average.

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Most of Victoria received less than half of its typical October rainfall.

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Most of Victoria received less than half of its typical October rainfall, while daytime temperatures were 2-3 degrees warmer than usual.

Large areas of the state had rainfall in the lowest decile range (lowest 10 per cent of records), making it Victoria's eighth driest October on record.

Daytime temperatures were the warmest since 2015 but night-time temperatures were generally close to average.

The statewide average rainfall total was 65pc below the long-term October average of 63.8 millimetres.

Parts of the south and east recorded more than 50mm, but in the far north-west there was no rainfall for the month.

Mildura Airport had a completely dry October; the only other time this occurred in Mildura in October was in 2006.

The state's mean maximum temperature was 2.4 degrees warmer than the October average - along with being the eight driest October it was also the eighth warmest on record.

Nights were warmer than average in parts of the south but most of Victoria recorded close to normal minimum temperatures for the month.

The highest daytime temperature in Victoria during October was 38.1 degrees, recorded at Swan Hill Aerodrome on October 24, in a northerly airflow preceding the approaching cold front.

The last day of the month was the hottest October day on record for parts of Gippsland.

Sale and Orbost, which have records back to the 1940s, and Bairnsdale had their highest October temperature on record on the 31st.

October root zone soil moisture ranks in the lowest 1pc of historical patterns in pockets of eastern and central Gippsland.

Soil moisture was below to very much below average across Victoria's north, but mixed in central and southern parts with areas of below, near, and above average.

Victoria's weather this spring has been influenced by one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole on record.

October's rainfall and temperature anomalies were consistent with the impacts for Victoria in mid-spring during previous positive IOD events.

The dry conditions are likely to continue through November for northern Victoria.

For southern Victoria there is no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average month ahead, mostly due to a shift northwards of weather systems in the first weeks of the month.

  • Jonathan Pollock is a climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology
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