Northern Victorian seasonal irrigation determinations continue to creep up.
The Murray system moved from 40 per cent of high reliability water shares (HRWS) to 42pc, while the Goulburn and Loddon systems went from 50pc to 53pc HRWS.
The Campaspe system moved from 56pc to 58pc.
Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0pc HRWS.
The Bullarook system remained on 100pc HRWS and 100pc low reliability water shares (LRWS).
Northern Victorian resource manager Mark Bailey said catchment conditions remained very dry, with low rainfall totals recorded since the last seasonal determination update.
"Flows into the storages are well below average, but still slightly higher than our conservative estimates," Dr Bailey said.
"The small improvements allowed the increased seasonal determinations.
"There is a 3,750-megalitre shortfall to announcing a positive seasonal determination in the Broken system."
But he said carryover commitments could be supplied throughout the water year.
"With the catchments drying, significant rainfall will be required to improve inflow conditions," he said.
"Without that kind of rainfall, large improvements in the seasonal determinations are unlikely.
"The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks show below average rainfall across northern Victoria is more likely between November and January."
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 gigalitres, or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50pc.
The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200GL of net trade from NSW to Victoria.
The Goulburn system's inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 251GL to the Murray system.
The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, NSW and South Australia, while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200GL.
