Outlook points to dry remainder of the year

Outlook points to dry remainder of the year


Weather
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Spring days are likely to be warmer than average in the north, while nights are likely to be cooler than average in the south-west.

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Much of Victoria was lucky enough to receive average rainfall after a dry winter forecast was released back in May.

North and west of the border, our neighbours were much less fortunate.

Winter rainfall was below average for parts of Gippsland, the north-east and the Mallee.

But it was wetter than average from Melbourne across towards Warrnambool.

The remainder of central and western Victoria recorded typical rainfall totals for this time of the year.

Days were warmer than usual this winter in the southern and eastern parts of the state, especially in the East Gippsland region.

Nights were warmer than average for much of the south, particularly in the south-west, but cooler than average in parts of the north-east.

The outlook for the remainder of the year is drier than average for most of Australia, including Victoria.

The spring (September-November) outlook shows low chances for above-average rainfall across northern Victoria, improving slightly towards the south.

The October to December outlook shows a small increase in the chances for above-average rainfall compared with spring.

Much of West Gippsland has a close to normal chance of above-average rainfall.

Overall, it is still a drier than average outlook for most of the state.

Spring days are likely to be warmer than average in the north, while nights are likely to be cooler than average in the south-west.

Otherwise, there's no strong push towards warmer or cooler than usual temperatures for the coming three months.

The state of the oceans surrounding Australia partly explains winter's weather and the outlook for spring.

In the Pacific, the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a neutral phase (neither El Nio nor La Nia) and is not pushing us towards wetter or drier, or warmer or cooler than average weather.

However, cloud and sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean have been consistent with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole since the end of May and are likely to continue into spring.

Typically, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole means below-average rainfall and warmer days for Victoria during spring.

For more information or to view the complete spring outlook at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks and make sure to check out the video.

- Jonathan Pollock is a Bureau of Meteorology climatologist

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