Bureau releases fresh three-month outlook

Bureau releases fresh three-month outlook


Weather
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The Bureau's updated July to September climate outlook reveals a weaker dry pattern compared with the previous outlook.

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There are still a few days to go before the month is over, but rainfall in the first half of June ensured above average monthly totals for parts of southern and western Victoria.

At the beginning of the month, a cold front brought widespread rainfall to parts of Victoria on the afternoon of June 2 through to the following day.

There were isolated two-day totals greater than 70 millimetres and most of the southern half of Victoria received more than 25mm.

The following week, a rain band and isolated thunderstorms that were moving eastward across the state delivered significant rainfall totals across two days:

  • 60mm at Mount Buller
  • 42mm at Nhill
  • 32mm at Horsham and Stawell

In response to the rainfall, root zone soil moisture for this time of year is above average for much of the west and a mixture of above, below and near average in the east.

Small parts of the central forecast district have root zone soil moisture in the highest 10 per cent of the historic record for June.

Water storage for the state continues to rise and is currently 44.5pc full.

The Bureau of Meteorology's updated July to September climate outlook, released on Thursday, June 27, reveals a weaker dry pattern compared with that of the previous outlook.

Overall, Victoria is likely to be drier than average in the coming three months, but there are parts of the state where there are roughly equal chances of a drier or wetter than average season ahead.

The one-month outlook for July shows no strong shift in the odds towards a wetter or drier than average month for Victoria.

Days are likely to be warmer than usual this July to September, with the highest chances in the east.

Chances reduce to the south-west; along the south-west coast the likelihood of warmer or cooler than average days is 50/50.

Nights are expected to be slightly warmer than average for this time of year for the eastern half of Victoria.

The outlook is mostly neutral in the west, where there is close to a 50pc chance of greater than normal temperatures.

But while nights are likely to be warmer than average in parts, a drier three-month outlook means less cloud cover is expected.

There is also an increased risk of frost in susceptible areas.

To view the Bureau's updated July to September climate outlook, visit http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/

  • Jonathan Pollock is a climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology
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