FIGURES released last week by Department of Agriculture and Water Resources show a surge in beef exports to 102,429 tonnes, highest March total since 2015.
This takes the first-quarter progressive count to 265,000t which is 11.5 per cent up on same period 2018.
The point here is that 2018 was also up substantially on the previous year.
That means we are now well into a second year of significantly increased production from a national herd that has yet to rebuild from the liquidation that occurred in the early part of the current drought which began in 2013.
The only way that can happen is from further heavy liquidation and latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show that is exactly what has been happening.
Unfortunately ABS figures have a time lag of one month so February is the latest data and that shows the percentage of females in the kill, already high in January at 50.8pc, rocketing to 54.3pc.
That is higher than anything we saw in 2013-15 and well past the June 2018 peak of 53.7pc.
When the March kill figures become available they can be expected to show a continuation of elevated female kill in parallel with the big export tonnage for the month.
It even reached the stage in December 2018 where more Australian product went to China than to the US. In February this year volume to China again came within a whisker of exceeding volume to the US at just under the 20,000t level.
But what goes up must eventually come down and by the time the April figures come in the impact of the March rain will be evident and proportion of females in the kill will likely be trending down below the 50pc mark.
As a major player in the export beef trade, the global supply-side implications of this will be significant.
Furthermore, if follow-up rain comes along together with a break for those regions that have so far missed out, cow supply can be expected to tighten even further with female kill percentage dropping to low 40s.
Meanwhile on the recipient side of the cow-beef trade, relative newcomer China is disrupting the traditional role the US has played as price setter for this market segment and this presents an additional dimension to the market dynamic.
China's current buying activity represents some immediate profit opportunity and this is altering trading patterns.
Steiner's analysis of the situation notes the heavy swing of New Zealand product away from the US in favour of China.
Australia too has directed product into China, as evidenced in the 2018 spike up to 162,000t for the year compared to 110,000t in 2017.
It even reached the stage in December 2018 where more Australian product went to China than to the US.
In February this year volume to China again came within a whisker of exceeding volume to the US at just under the 20,000t level.
Then in March Australia exported 20,579t to China, the first time since the trade came to life in 2012 that monthly tonnage has exceeded 20,000.
While this has been occurring, Australia's trade with the US has been relatively subdued.
From the heady 416,000t exported in 2015, volume has since declined to a low point of 231,000t in 2018.
But as Steiner noted in last week's report, the limited offerings from New Zealand and Australia due to the amount being directed into China may be starting to resonate in the US.
It seems tariff war with the US has caused China to step up border controls which in turn has limited the supply of beef into China through traditional 'gray trade' channels.
Hong Kong is reported to be having difficulty moving product to mainland China and Indian beef sourced via Vietnam has also declined.
With the added impact on protein demand from the African Swine Fever epidemic, it seems China's impetus in the beef market is likely to continue in the short term at least.
This altered supply scenario coupled with expected rising beef demand from the spring grilling season appears to have invoked a bit of panic in the US imported beef complex.
Modest increases in volume from Australia in the first two months of this year have suddenly spiked.
From 19,000t in February volume has jumped to 24,391t in March taking first quarter imports to 16pc ahead of same period 2018.
Prices in the US for imported beef now appear to be increasing daily so it would seem the US may reassert its position as market leader.
But with two major players with competing needs for the same limited resource, it will be interesting to see who waxes and who wanes.
Markets settle after rain
EASTERN states slaughter figures provided by Meat and Livestock Australia for last week show the extent of the challenge in getting stock to meatworks following last month's rain and major floods in many of Queensland's river systems.
Only 139,986 head were processed compared to 147,000 the week before and 150,000 plus in the weeks preceding.
But one processor contact is confident that things are improving and that play should resume to something near normal after the Easter short weeks.
Grids generally experienced only realignment adjustments this week with 4-tooth ox in southern and central Queensland holding at 530-535c/kg and heavy cow at 440c.
One published grid in southern NSW has remained unchanged since mid-March at 525c and 380c for the same descriptions.
On the seasonal side, while country to the east and south-east of Dubbo has received a start, follow-up rain is needed to provide some growth.
Areas to the west and south-west of Dubbo are reportedly still in a bad way.
Partly in consequence of ongoing seasonal conditions and partly in response to the improved saleyard rates, vendors are hitting the saleyards up and down the east coast with big numbers this week.
But if early sales are any indication, there may be some disappointment in store.
Wagga lined up with 1500 cows on Monday only to see much of the gains of the past two weeks traded off.
Good heavyweight cows were down 12-27c while lighter, plainer descriptions were 30-50c cheaper.