Riverina agents are concerned about "dismal" pregnancy scanning rates, with reports of conception rates falling to as low as 15-30 per cent for ewes run pastoral country and 60-80pc is being heralded as good result for flocks grazed in agricultural districts.
Bearing in mind that a high percentage of the nations flocks was grazed in the pastoral zone before the drought conditions set in, a lot of this country has now been heavily destocked, with most of the older ewes culled and only the youngest in each flock being retained.
Speaking with a major processor this week, who wished to remain anonymous, he said many operators in the lamb processing were aware of the unhealthy long-term supplies outlook.
Some, he said, had supply commitments as far forward as May, and it was surprising where the lambs were being offered from.
"But after that is a big unknown. The damage to the breeding flock, in terms of the depopulation and increased slaughter of ewes has been extensive and well documented," he said.
"What we don't know is when and how significant the depletion of the new crop of lambs will be but we are planning for significant scale back and extensive closures."
In recent projections for the sheep industry, Meat & Livestock Australia said the poor conditions that marred 2018 will have a significant impact on sheepmeat supply in 2019, with lamb slaughter forecast to be its lowest since 2012.
The significantly reduced breeding flock, poor current conditions and negative rainfall outlook, suggest fewer joinings than usual and a continuation of the lower-than average lambing rates experienced in 2018.
Dry conditions, which have led to substantial drops in marking rates and the extensive culling of ewes and ewe lambs, underpins the forecast for a 7 per cent decline in lamb slaughter in 2019, at 21.2 million head.
MLA estimates the national flock to have declined by over 4 million head, or 6.1pc, by mid-2018 and is forecast to experience a further decline of 3.7pc to mid-2019.
