Farmers now have a dollar value for new radar services

University of Western Australia School of Agriculture and Environment senior lecturer Dr Marit Kragt says a conservative estimate of the annual benefits of improved weather forecasting in the state’s wheatbelt was nearly $3.4 million a year. 

The Bureau of Meteorology plans to commission a new radar for Rainbow, in Victoria’s Mallee, next year.

Read more: There'll soon be a radar, at the end of the Rainbow

“The numbers will be slightly different,” Dr Kragt told the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics  Society annual conference,  Melbourne.

“But if you are planning herbicide application, fertiliser top-ups and avoiding misapplication of spray - those activities are similar across the whole Australian wheat belt.”

Her studies showed even a five per cent marginal improvement in forecasting accuracy could increase the WA wheatbelt’s profitability by nearly $10, million over 17 years.

The benefits to WA growers mainly accrued from reductions in downgraded wheat, or lower wheat losses, less need for re-spraying, a drop in chemical application costs and fewer sheep losses.

“Reduction of downgraded wheat is the benefit contributing to the highest economic return,” Dr Kragt said.

“There was a lot of convenience value,”

“Farmers said now I know better, which paddock to work on, or where to reallocate labor, or just peace of mind, which is really hard to quantify,” she said.

She said farmers also raised a reduction in sheep losses, from extreme weather events.

“Eighty per cent of farmers said they had sheep losses, although it was only one per cent of the flock,” she said.

“But because there are so many sheep, the numbers add up.”

In the case of isolated weather events, when farmers need to act quickly and decisively, Doppler radar technology could play a role by providing real-time critical information. 

Some farmers emphasised exposure of livestock to severe unexpected weather could be reduced by monitoring radar information, essentially enabling accurate and rapid emergency response to protect livestock from, for example, heavy rainfall events.

Dr Kragt said her studies had shown a cost-benefit ratio of $1.54 for every dollar invested, in the West Australian radars.

The radars only needed to be operational for seven years, to break even. 

Before the new radars were announced, the most of the wheatbelt lacked coverage by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) weather radar network, which has five radars located on the region’s periphery - at Esperance, Albany, Perth, Geraldton – and inland, Kalgoorlie, with limited reach into the grain growing areas. 

To remedy this situation, in 2014 the State Government's Royalties for Regions program provided $23 million funding for the construction and operation of 3 new weather radars in Newdegate, South Doodlakine, and Watheroo.

Similarly, north-west Victoria had been seen as a black hole, for weather data, as it relied on interstate stations and a radar in Mildura.

Dr Kragt said benefits would also flow to non-farming activities.

“Additional benefits that are generated by the radars that have not been captured in our analysis are environmental benefits, from better chemical targeting, long-term improvements in weather forecasting ability, thanks to the collected observations and benefits to non-farm stakeholders like rural fire services.”

“They will have great benefits from, especially the Doppler feature, which shows wind direction, which is very important for fire management.”

The BoM would also have a wealth of new information, which would enable it to predict weather into the future better.

“All these benefits add up, in addition to what we have already shown,” Dr Kragt said.