It is known that the best commodity to buy during a prolonged dry period is a female.
For the livestock production industry that means female breeding stock – cows, heifers and ewes – for the purpose of rebuilding herds or flocks.
And yet following a very successful first week of weaner sales last week, where the steer portion has mostly sold 10-15c/kg above expectation, a distinct lack of interest in heifers to be retained as breeding stock emerged despite the long dry spell continuing.
At the Hamilton series of sales, where I was stationed all week, some 3250 head of British bred heifers were sold compared to 3026 offered last year.
But after analysing the year-on-year yardings, it was a surprise to grazier heifer orders were thinner on the ground this year.
As a result, the participation of seedstock producers supporting the sale of their own sire-line calves was less active than usual.
From the results sheets it is difficult to ascertain which other grazier buyers purchased heifers for breeding compared to those destined for the carcase trade.
However, what is known is 58 per cent of this year’s Hamilton heifer supply were purchased by feedlots while 13pc were purchased for known future breeding programs.
That leaves 30pc, or about 900 heifers, in the remain balance that may or may not enter the bull paddock.
Assuming half are joined that means less than 26pc of Hamilton heifer yardings will successfully escape the butchers’ knife.
Add to this figure the large number of young heifers that will be exported live again this year.
Some people curse the live export of heifers for its extra paperwork and blood tests, but it does offer greater returns.
On current prices of $950/head, delivered the wharf on a 270kg heifer, is 350c/kg, which is streets ahead of the 260c/kg for similar in the store market pens.
Looking at recent kill data, MLA reports the number of adult cattle processed nationally was forecast to finish 2018 close to 7.8 million head, 9 per cent year-on-year. Queensland adult cattle slaughter rose 9pc compared to the same period last year, while NSW increased 11pc year-on-year.
Female slaughter spiked 22pc higher year-on-year, which has been the driver behind elevated slaughter numbers with the herd re-entering a period of contraction, as producers with little choice reduced their breeding herds.
In Victoria, cow kill numbers are heavily influenced by dairy but in the second-half of 2018 the proportion of cows sold in saleyards increased from 22-27pc compared to the first six months of 2018 – another reason heifers are a compelling project buy.
