Commentators agree Federal issues influenced Saturday's Victorian election

That’s the view of leading political commentators, who said the poll was also bad news for the National Party.

The Labor Government was on track to be returned with 55 seats in the 88 seat lower house, after a nearly six per cent swing against the coalition.

It also gained seats in the Legislative Council.

Monash University political commentator Dr Nick Economou said the last time the coalition had been so comprehensively defeated was in 2002.

“In the lead up to that election, the Parliamentary Liberal Party tore itself apart over leadership,” he said.

Opposition Treasurer Robert Dean was struck off the electoral roll when it was discovered he was not living at the nominated address for the seat where he was standing.

Read more: Commentators predict a Labor win on Saturday

Dr Economou said while the Victorian Liberals were not experiencing problems, troubles in the Federal party flowed through to the State election.

“I have to say, for all their problems, the Parliamentary Liberal Party was not so disunited.

“Matthew Guy was not under threat, there was no obvious manifestation of the collapse of the parliamentary Liberal Party,” Dr Economou said.

He said problems in the administrative wing of the Liberal Party were of no interest to voters.

“Something has really alienated the Liberal and National Party’s core base, and, by process of elimination, the only thing that can be is the Federal Liberals,” he said.

There was also fall-out from the issues facing former National Party Leader Barnaby Joyce.

“Joyce has damaged the National Party brand in regional and rural Victoria,” Dr Economou said.

He said the rise of independents, including Ali Cupper, in Mildura, who had recorded a 9.3pc swing against Nationals incumbent Peter Crisp, was not unexpected, as the seat “had form.”

It was held by independent Russell Savage, from 1996 to 2006.

Fairfax Media commentator Tony Wright said the Nationals had faced an identity crisis, ever since trying to rebrand themselves.

“It never seemed to mean anything in particular, but it's too late to return to its roots as the Country Party, because country Australia has changed so dramatically,” Mr Wright said.

“As this latest election shows, they're under increasing siege from Independents, many of whom look and sound as if they're 21st-century versions of what the Country Party used to stand for.”

These included local issues and better opportunities for the people of the bush, who were a lot more sophisticated - politically, socially and technologically - than they were often given credit for.

“The short take is the Nationals are going to have to re-make their image, their approach to major policies like climate change (which is very real to rural people), and their social attitudes if they are to survive long-term.”

He said women were increasingly emerging into public leadership roles.

“Plenty of them, inspired by (Indi Federal MP) Cathy McGowan, are often as not identifying as Independents, rather than Nationals. 

“Post-Barnaby, this is a party that has to rebuild trust with women, and grant serious opportunities for them within the party structure and in pre-selections.” 

Read more: Forget the wacky theories, the Liberal Party lost because it trashed its own brand

Deakin University’s Geoff Robinson said voters like what the government was doing, concerning its services and infrastructure agenda.

“In Melbourne and provincial cities people like to see government’s doing that, they are less worried about public debt,” Dr Robinson said.

“The increase in public debt didn’t seem to be worrying people.”

He agreed the troubles in the Federal Liberal party contributed to damaging its brand, “particularly among many educated, affluent voters in Melbourne and provincial cities.”

But Mr Robinson said the National Party was becoming increasingly vulnerable to rural independents.

“Outside the Western districts, there are not many purely agricultural areas,” Dr Robinson said.

 “You have to win votes in increasingly urbanised areas.

“The appeal of the independents is why go on voting for the party that always wins, but are not able to deliver?

“This time around, that worked against the coalition.”

State wide, the National Party vote dipped by 0.2 per cent, to sit on 5.3pc. By mid week, independents had increased their vote by 5pc.

But Victorian National Party leader Peter Walsh rejected the claims.

“There was an increased majority for The Nationals’ vote in the seats of Murray Plains, Lowan, Euroa, Gippsland South and Gippsland East,” Mr Walsh said.

“This includes an increase in the primary vote, against the statewide swing.”

He said with statewide results being dominated by changing seats in Melbourne, the Nationals would be working doubly hard to make sure regional issues made it onto the government’s agenda.

”Our MPs work hard to represent their communities at the grassroots level, fighting to make sure regional Victoria’s massive economic and social contribution to our state is recognised and matched with better infrastructure and services,” Mr Walsh said.

“I believe this has come through in The Nationals’ increased support.

He said Mildura was always going to be a close vote.

“Crispy is a passionate and dedicated local member, who has fought hard over the past 12 years for a better deal for all communities across the Mildura electorate,” Mr Walsh said.

“This includes key projects the community is seeking support for, including the return of passenger rail to Mildura which has never been matched by the Labor Government.”

​Victoria’s farmers will have to lobby harder to ensure the incoming State Labor Government keeps its election promises to the bush, after what commentators said was a “thrashing” for the coalition, in last week’s election.

That’s according to senior office bearers of three of heads of the Victorian Farmers Federation commodity groups, the United Dairyfarmers of Victoria, Grains and Livestock. 

United Dairyfarmers of Victoria vice president Paul Mumford, Won Wron, said the election showed up the sharp city-country divide.

“It’s really disappointing, potentially country Victoria may struggle to get the requirements we need,” Mr Mumford said.

It was vital for the VFF, UDV, and the coalition to seek outcomes for the agricultural sector, on roads, electricity, energy and employment.

“It’s imperative the government address these issues for the whole of the state.

“That’s something the VFF needs to work hard for.

“In four years, we’ll be judging them on their promises.”

President David Jochinke said he was pleased with the $20 million funding, announced for safety and training.

“During the election campaign, there was not a lot on drought – for me, East Gippsland is in need of help, and that needs to be addressed in the next stage of funding,” he said.

“In my opinion, the best drought policy is to have a strong agricultural policy, so when we have dry times, people have fat on the bone.”

He said the VFF would continue to hold the government to its commitments to upgrade telecommunications and roads.

 “I’m driving on a C class road to Kyabram, which would never be acceptable down in Melbourne,” he said.

The first 100 days in office would set the tone for the government’s second term in office.

“In many ways, a weakened opposition means working with the Upper House is a priority for us,” Mr Jochinke said.

“Now they only need an additional two people to get legislation through, so that means for us, we are going to have to be that little bit more particular,”

“We will be working with the other 21 members of the Upper House who need to be fully aware of our policies too.”

Livestock group president Leonard Vallance said he wasn’t surprised by the result.

He the biggest challenge, in the next four years, would be ensuring city residents valued their food – “and the people who grow their food for them.

One of the new government’s primary roles was to make sure people understood the agricultural sector was the most critical sector in their lives.

“The National and Liberal Party need to have a bloody good hard look at themselves,” Mr Vallance said.

“They are on the nose in the rural sector, after this, they lost the previous election because they weren’t doing enough.

“People like me have every right to be angry, the Andrews government won’t be held to account by the Nats and the Liberals, will they?”

Mr Vallance said Mr Andrews had stated he was going to govern for all of Victoria.

“We’ll see if he can manage that.

“People in rural Victoria are entitled to a quality education, they are entitled to the basic right of health services and are also entitled to a transport system that functions.”

Grains group president Ross Johns said he was not surprised by the outcome, as he always thought Labor would be returned to power.

“Politics is certainly a very interesting business,” Mr Johns said.

He said he was confident the government would be supportive of agriculture, given its value to the state’s economy.

The VFF would have to hold the government to account for its promises, particularly the $20million for occupational health and safety.

“I would hope they would be emphatic towards areas like occupational health and safety, including the safety of the rural road network, and making a difference to the lives of the people of country Victoria,” he said.

“That’s a very positive thing for agriculture and farmers will be holding them to account, to deliver that, and see the positive change it can make.”

The community expected farmers grew safe and reliable food, and Victorians were provided with access to secure supplies.