Dry conditions, frost should see hay price fall

JumbukAG director Colin Peace has told a series of Agriculture Victoria seasonal outlook workshops there was next to no carryover, into this season. 

Dairy Australia’s last hay report saw prices ranging from $350-$500 a tonne, for the Goulburn and Murray Valleys.  

“I can see some pressure coming off those prices, by the time we come into late October and early November,” Mr Peace said.

In some areas of Victoria, up to 50 per cent of the estimated 430,00 hectares of canola would be cut for hay, while dry conditions were also putting pressure on grain growers.

Dry conditions and frosts would also lead to a jump in the availability of cereal hay.

“I reckon you are going to have a sensational volume of cereal hay, in Victoria, it’s going to be much better than normal,” Mr Peace said.

“The cupboards are bare, you will need all of this, to keep Victoria going, plus what’s happening in NSW.”

While price was driving up the demand for hay, grain growers were now being forced to cut crops.

“Graingrowers are on earth to grow grain, but the numbers are stacked against them.

“They have to cut their crops for hay, it just makes all the sense in the world.”

Jumbuk provides regular forecasts of hay and silage production, from each region of Australia.

Mr Peace said NSW had turned the hay market on its head, as drought-hit livestock producers sought feed for their cattle.

“This spike we have had recently is unprecedented, we are at record prices for hay, we have never been here before and you wonder where it's all going to end,” Mr Peace said.

But good seasonal conditions in south-west Victoria would also see strong production of pasture hay.

“Most pasture hay we grow in Victoria comes from south of the Great Divide, including Corangamite and Hopkins providing more than a third of pasture hay,” he said.

“They are having a crackerjack season down there

“They are going to be pretty good, they are going to make as much hay as they can and that’s going to do a lot of heavy lifting to keep demand for hay happy in Victoria.”

And while he said the outlook for vetch hay was poor, the huge areas of canola being cut were good news for the dairy sector. 

“It has a lot of good attributes, the protein average for canola is 15 and it could be closer to 18-20, so it’s a pretty handy source of feed,” Mr Peace said.

“The growers now are getting much better at making canola hay, they are making the decision much earlier, to cut canola hay, this year.

“A couple of hundred thousand tonnes of canola hay for Victoria will go down very nicely.”

Mr Peace said canola hay would suit feed pads and mixer wagons, as a “pretty valuable asset for the dairy industry.”