There’s been a slight increase in the availability of high reliability water shares, in the latest seasonal determination and outlook.
Northern Victoria Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said the Murray system was up six per cent, from 41 per cent of high-reliability water shares to 47pc.
The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increased from 32pc HRWS to 34pc.
The Campaspe system remained at 100 per cent HRWS.
“The increases announced today came from a couple of sources,” Dr Bailey said.
“The carryover volume in the Murray system was slightly lower than the provisional volume assumed for the season-opening assessment.
“The reopening of the Victorian Water Register confirmed the lower carryover volume, which increased the amount available for seasonal determination.”
Each of the systems had some minor correction to carryover volumes, but only the Murray benefitted from the change.
“Some minor improvements came from streamflows exceeding our forecasts,” Dr Bailey said.
“The catchments are responding to rain, but we need more to increase storage levels and see higher seasonal determinations.”
The determinations follow the driest January to June period for the Murray Darling Basin in more than 30 years, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
The prolonged dry spell, the first since 1986, had resulted in low flows, into the Murray Darling catchments.
BoM climatologist Jonathan Pollock said the whole of south-eastern Australia, excluding Tasmania, had experienced below average rainfall in the last six months.
“It’s an interesting set up,” Mr Pollock said.
“We are in a weak La Nina and the last time we had some good, widespread, overall rainfall was in November and December, last year.”
“At the same time, we have seen the warmest first six months of the year, in terms of maximum temperatures, for large parts of the south-east.”
Mr Pollock said the BoM had an El Nino watch in place.
“There is about a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino, occurring later in 2018.
“At the same time it’s been more local effects, which have given us the dry run up until now.”
Dr Bailey noted climate outlooks were favouring drier conditions.
