Some parts of Victoria record driest April on record

The east of the state was especially dry, particularly East Gippsland, with some parts recording their driest April on record.

Most of northern Victoria had less than 20 per cent of their normal April rainfall, while the South-West recorded 60 per cent of its average rainfall for the month.

BoM senior climatologist Dr Blair Trewin said the dry conditions were fairly consistent across northern Victoria.

“Most places recorded below 10 millimetres, for example Shepparton only recorded seven mm, which was quite typical across the north, to be in single digits,” Dr Trewin said.

He said it wasn’t Shepparton’s driest April on record, but was still significantly dry.

“Single digital Aprils aren’t totally unheard of, you’d typically expect to see one in six Aprils under 10mm,” he said.

He said what was a standout was the warm conditions in Shepparton, which were matched across the state.

“Some daytime averages were the warmest on record, almost four degrees above the long-term average for April,” he said.

“It was very warm, particularly in the north, some of the daytime maximum temperatures were the warmest on record, up to four to five degrees above average along the Murray.”

He said the south of the state was less extreme, mostly two to three degrees above average.

“Combining these statewide, the state was 3.45 degrees above average, which makes it the second warmest April on record after 2005,” he said.

So what’s driving this?

Dr Trewin said there weren’t any particular El Niño or La Niña influences, as both were in a neutral situation at the moment.

“April is the time of year you don’t get much impact from El Niño and La Niña, and the Indian Ocean isn’t doing anything terribly exciting either,” he said.

He said we are seeing persistent high pressure over southern Australia, which is pushing the frontal systems southwards.

“Normally by this time of year, we’d be starting to see frontal systems affecting Victoria fairly regularly, but we’ve only really had one this time round, the rest have passed south to Tasmania,” he said.

Dr Trewin said the dry conditions had been going on for most of the year, particularly since February.

“If you look at the three-month period from February to April, and the four-month period from January to April, those have been the driest in Victoria since 1967, the fifth driest on record,” he said.

He said the outlook is mixed.

“The current outlook up to July is leading towards a higher chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Victoria, particularly East Gippsland, which is a contrast to what they’ve had lately,” he said.

“But it is going to be a bit dry in central and western Victoria, with some areas showing a 60 per cent chance of below average rainfall.”