Cold and blustery weather has offered the first sign that winter is approaching and a general break to the season may not be far away.
Temperatures plummeted on the weekend as the cold change passed through the state, bringing the first snow falls for the season to the alps. The change also resulted in rain through the north-east.
Rainfall totals through the state’s cropping areas were modest, but the change offered plenty of encouragement. Central Victoria and the Wimmera received 5-10mm for the week, while the Mallee only recorded traces.
It’s been a dry start to autumn for Victoria’s cropping areas, with the Wimmera and Mallee receiving less than 15mm in the past eight weeks. Soils are parched and farmers are waiting on soaking rains to start planting winter crops.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest monthly climate outlook indicates the recent pattern of warmer than normal temperatures could continue into May before cooler temperatures arrive in June.
The unseasonably warm temperatures – which has toppled temperature records in Adelaide, Sydney and many regional towns in south-eastern Australia – appears to have been driven by high ocean temperatures and weaker prevailing coastal winds.
The bureau’s May to July rainfall outlook for south-east Australia is neutral, except for eastern Victoria which forecast to be wetter average.
Grain markets also act as a good barometer of the prevailing weather conditions and the sentiment for a change and market sensitivity towards dry weather is building.
Victorian grain prices have pushed sharply higher in the past several weeks, as farmers stopped selling old crop grain as they wait for a general break to the season.
Melbourne APW and ASW prices gained $7 last week to $295 delivered into Melbourne while F1 feed barley was up $6 at $288. Exporters are also bidding $290 delivered Melbourne for new crop wheat and $268 for feed barley.
It was a topsy-turvy week for the United States wheat futures.
Futures rallied sharply early in the week after weekend temperatures plummeted to well below freezing which is expected to result in some winter kill losses in parts of the HRW wheat crop.
A further deterioration in the wheat crop conditions, which are the lowest in more than two decades was also supportive.
The market gave back these gains in the later part of the week as forecasters added rain for the driest parts of the HRW wheat crop.
In its monthly world supply and demand assessment, the USDA raised world wheat ending stocks by a further two million tonnes to 271 million tonnes.
In a familiar pattern, the USDA again raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports by one million tonnes to 38.5 million tonnes.
Russia’s 2017-18 wheat exports are now expected to exceed last year’s record exports by more than 10 million tonnes.
Australia’s 2017-18 wheat exports were left unchanged at 16 million tonnes, according to the USDA report.
The USDA will release its first detailed forecasts for the 2018-19 world wheat crop, which is expected to show the first annual decline in global production in six seasons.