The hiccups in supply of live cattle to Indonesia, from both the lumpy skin disease issues last year and the delay in permits this year, are unlikely to affect overall volumes sent this financial year.
The trade has played catch-up effectively.
Cattle that were 'stacked up' on the back of a six-week delay from January in Indonesia issuing permits due to general elections have now mostly been sent, Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association boss Will Evans reported.
Numerous boats have left northern ports in the past month.
Likewise, December 2023 saw massive numbers go as cattle that were held back when quarantine yards were suspended made their way onto ships. Industry leaders described it as the busiest December for the Indonesian feeder business ever seen.
The end result is that live cattle export volumes are now expected to finish the financial year at 708,000 head, an increase of 20 per cent on the previous financial year, according to the latest government forecasts.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences says the reduced cost of cattle to Indonesian importers has gone a long way to lifting the numbers sent.
For that reason, along with increased supply courtesy of improved seasonal conditions in the north, volumes are forecast in 2024/25 to rise to 811,000 head, up another 15pc.
While ABARES is tipping the cattle market to lift in that period, it says prices for live cattle will still be lower relative to the past three years.
Over the medium term, the cost of Australian cattle to Indonesian exporters should remain below the 10-year average, further supporting demand.
Mr Evans said things were pointing in the right direction.
Mustering in the NT is due to kick off next month but given it's still raining, and major roads remained blocked by flood water, that could be delayed.
"It's been a big wet but a good wet for pastoralists and that will serve the trade well going forward," Mr Evans said.
"Numbers are expected to be strong and that will coincide with good demand."
Meat & Livestock Australia's latest projections attribute the upturn in demand not only to the lower cattle prices and enhanced availability but to "increased post-pandemic economic activity in key markets."
"Despite previous pressures that led trade partners to seek cheaper alternatives, the current prices, coupled with high quality and consistent supply, have reinstated importer confidence in importing Australian cattle," MLA analysts said.
While overall, the indicators for this market are positive for 2024, the demand landscape does present some uncertainties.
According to MLA, these include the impact of inflation causing an erosion of consumers' purchasing power and growing competition from Indian buffalo meat due to an increase in allocation of 50,000 extra tonnes for private importers.
Another key live-ex market, Vietnam, also faces slower economic recovery despite government stimuli, analysts said.
The Philippines was one of the growth markets of 2023, more than doubling Australian cattle imports compared to 2022, albeit at relatively low volumes, MLA reported.
"This is one of the more price-sensitive markets that benefited from lower Australian cattle prices, and it is expected to sustain good volumes in 2024," MLA analysts said.
The Western Australian Government organised the state's largest overseas trade mission to Indonesia late last year, with live cattle and boxed beef a key focus.
Minister for Agriculture Jackie Jarvis said Asia was a key market for WA agriculture and it was important to explore new ways to strengthen trade relationships.
During the Indonesia Connect Roadshow, she hosted a Red Meat Roundtable in partnership with MLA, which provided valuable insights into the Indonesian market and opportunities for boxed sheep and beef meat. Boxed meat importers and feedlot operators were in attendance.
She also led an agricultural trade mission to Vietnam and Thailand.
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
