Cattle slaughter is tipped to rise significantly in the months and years ahead, driven by both larger numbers from a rebuilt herd and robust overseas demand pushing export prices higher.
Processors have been putting in place big moves, at big costs, to boost capacity but labour continues to be flagged as a possible constraint, both by the sector itself and analysts.
This time last year there were major warnings about a pending bottleneck in processing as bigger supply clashed with abattoir workforce shortages but much of that doom and gloom didn't eventuate.
So producers seem to be taking any talk of labour concerns with a grain of salt now, even though the forecast volumes of slaughter-ready cattle coming down the pipeline are even larger this year.
Analysts said 'things turned around dramatically' when five major meatworks announced million dollar investments in increased capacity last year.
If running at full steam, those announcements from the likes of JBS Australia and Greenhams, among others, would mean an additional 3000 head of cattle could be processed nationally per day. That's 18,000 a week or, on today's slaughter level, a boost of 15pc.
On top of that, a large backlog of visas for overseas workers were approved last year on the back of strong lobbying across many agriculture sectors.
Through the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility, or PALM scheme, processors have been granted access to more unskilled labour from nine Pacific Island countries and Timor-Leste.
More than a quarter of all PALM scheme workers, or close to 10,000, went into meat processing, MLA reported.
Thirdly, there was some commentary this time last year, including from government economists at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, that labour wouldn't affect slaughter capacity.
Processors would swap out their least profitable activities as higher labour costs made them unviable, ABARES Jonathan Wong said at the 2023 ABARES Outlook conference.
Effectively, further processing, or 'value-add' work, would be traded to push through more volume.
Slaughter forecasts
Meat & Livestock Australia have revised up their annual cattle slaughter figures, forecasting volumes in 2024 to reach 7.85 million head - the highest number since 2019.
After lifting more than 20pc last year, that will be a further 11.7pc rise, MLA's latest cattle herd projections said.
Next year, MLA has slaughter rising another 5.3pc to 8.3 million head, which will be well above the ten-year average.
It will finally start to ease in 2026, according to MLA, but still remain above the ten-year average.
Government economists also say slaughter is on the way up.
ABARES frames its forecasts in financial years and its March quarter commodities report, released this week, says slaughter will lift to 8.4 million head in 2024-25.
"High prices for Australian beef exports, driven by strong United States demand, are expected to incentivise processors to keep slaughter capacity high despite a forecast increase in saleyard prices," said livestock team leader in the Agricultural Forecasting and Policy Team Alistair Read.