VICTORIA’S far east has been hit by the driest year in a decade, with producers now looking to destock, ahead of summer.
Orbost livestock producer and dairy farmer Chris Nixon said the conditions were equal to those the area experienced in 2007.
“There is no rain in sight, it’s just a disaster all around,” Mr Nixon said.
“I’ll start selling the old cows, it’ll be a partial destocking, at this stage, as the Bureau of Meteorology is still forecasting above average rain between November and February.”
Mr Nixon said he was now only “three hot days from a disaster” after only six millimetres of rain fell in the most recent event.
“We are unlikely to get any grass, hay or silage, at this stage,” he said.
He said a recent day of 35 degrees “knocked the country for six”.
“I have got dry dams; we are in for a long, dry summer,” he said.
Light showers had done nothing to help, with East Gippsland 400mm down on its 850mm yearly average.
Rob Liley, Walkerville, said he received 15mm in the latest event, which had further put his production schedule back.
“It’s just got back to as wet as wet,” Mr Liley said.
“We won’t get a truck on this country to put fertiliser on, for probably a month.
“I am bringing cattle up to the yards and they are just ploughing the joint.”
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) senior duty forecaster Rod Dickson said the best falls from last week’s rain event were around the north-eastern ranges.
“Broadly speaking most of western Victoria, and near and south of the Ranges, excluding Gippsland, saw falls of 10-25mm,” Mr Dickson said.
“This system linked up with a fair bit of moisture that came down from the tropics, to produce the rainfall.”
He said drier conditions were now likely to prevail, with a neutral, or weak, La Nina predicted.
That was coupled with a neutral Indian Ocean dipole.
“With a bit of moisture coming down from Tropics, from time to time, we could see some further rain events, through spring, but we will just have to wait and see.”
Senior duty forecast Michael Efron said a front and low pressure system were about to pass through the state.
“As that trough enters the state we will see showers and thunderstorms across western and central districts,” Mr Efron said.
”In terms of rainfall, it’s a little bit difficult to predict, given we will have thunderstorms around.”
He said while falls of 1 to 5mm were predicted across the Mallee, they could be up to 20mm, from isolated storms.
Cooler temperatures were expected, following the passage of the front but East Gippsland would remain dry.
“It certainly has been very dry across east Gippsland, we are looking at rainfall being 20-50mm below average for September and for the month so far, they are at least 50mm below average,” he said.
At Wanalton, mixed farmer Bill Barlow said he was disappointed the property only received 5mm, “when we were promised 10-20mm”.
“I think some of the canola crops have lost potential from the dry weather; hopefully the cereal will see it through,” Mr Barlow said.
“We wouldn’t have had 10mm here in six weeks, including that 5mm.”
Father and son John and Kym Lyons, Melville Forest, said this year's season has been as close to average as it has been for a long time.
“This year has finally gone back to the secure south-west rainfall-type that the area got its reputation for,” Kym Lyons said.
They said autumn was "a touch wet", before things dried off in June, but that was all forgotten thanks to "non-stop" rain in July and August.
Their property received 170mm of rainfall during those two months, and they said recent rain helped finish the job.
Damien Watt, Coleraine, also sung the praises of the season, and said it had been the "best season" he's ever had.
“The rain started early, and then it was dry in June, but then it was wet throughout September,” Mr Watt said.
He said about 10 days ago he was hoping for more rain, and was not disappointed.
“I believe there's more rain to come next week, which will help our pastures stay in good shape,” he said.
