A wise person once said there’s no such thing as an average year. This has definitely been the case in 2017.
The challenge lies in deciding how much to invest in inputs during the growing season to determine what will happen with crop yields.
The growing season kicked off with a wet April and May, as the Western District hovered around a decile seven to nine. But eastern Victoria missed many of these rain events, and by the end of autumn had received below average rainfall.
In June, the tables turned for the western region. Most areas had a decile one June, with rainfall sitting in the bottom 10 per cent of years. The change was not unwelcome in places where autumn downpours had already soaked the soil profile and made trafficking some paddocks near impossible.
The SFS ProbeTrax moisture probe network shows soils across the Western District are storing about 70-90 per cent of the total amount of water they can hold. With such a wet autumn, we came into winter with the soil profile already nearing full. Plants utilised this stored water to keep growing through the dry June. Satellite imaging shows growth rates have dropped to between 0-10 kg/ha/day with the cold weather. This in turn means plants are using very little water.
Areas of Gippsland are feeling the dry a lot more than the south-west, having come out of a dry autumn.
Moisture probes near Traralgon show soil is holding as little as 41 per cent of its capacity, while at Bairnsdale the profile is about 86 per cent full. On average, at this time of year, Gippsland soils are at 80 per cent of their total water holding capacity.
The end of winter and spring are going to be crucial for setting up yields.
Agriculture Victoria climate scientist Dale Grey said climate forecast models are indicating July to September is likely to be drier to average with average temperatures.
Soil water reserves will ensure things keep growing, especially in the west where more water has been stored in the soil.
Ideally, there will be some good spring rain to help crops finish well.
