IT has been the driest June on record in Victoria, since records began in 1900.
As of Thursday, Victoria had received an average of 11 millimetres across the state, which is about half of the last record of 22mm, which was recorded in 1944, and well below the long-term average of 60mm.
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) senior meteorologist Scott Williams said it has been particularly dry in the state’s north.
“The northern half is especially dry, something like 50 per cent of stations are heading for their driest June on record, whereas the last time we had an extreme dry in 1944, only 7pc of individual stations set their record,” Mr Williams said.
“Normally at this time of year, it’s our peak time for east-coast lows, but this June we have seen very strong high pressure systems dominating southern Australia.”
He said another consequence of the dry conditions has been some very cold nights.
“We’ve seen the minimum temperatures rivaling 2006, which was the last time we had an exceptionally cold June in terms of nights, with multiple frosts,” he said.
“Saturday looks like being the coldest morning so far this winter, and that follows a front that unfortunately isn’t producing much rain, but will give us very cold air, and another high pressure system will then come in and give us widespread frost and temperatures as low as -5 degrees in northern Victoria, and a minimum of just 2 degrees in Melbourne.”
BoM senior climatologist Andrew Watkins said these dry conditions are expected to last.
“Of course we’re going to get our normal breaks coming through, and hopefully a bit of snow at times, but we are likely to see a continuation of these high pressure systems in the next month,” Mr Watkins said.
“Looking ahead for the next season, into July, August, and September, it will be favouring drier than normal conditions, at around a 70pc chance, and then an 80pc chance that it will be warmer than normal over those three months.”
Victorian Farmers Federation vice-president Brett Hosking said if it doesn’t rain soon, farmers will adjust accordingly.
“They’ll start to reduce their input costs, they’ll start to manage their livestock and the way that they look after their paddocks, they’ll adjust to the season that’s delivered to them,” Mr Hosking said.
“Whenever we go into a period like this, it creates a bit of unease and a little bit of cautiousness in decision making.
“But farmers tend to evaluate the risk and reward of the decisions they’ll make, and make changes to their planning to adapt to the season.
“One of the good things about a slow start is that we could be off to a cracking finish.”
