The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has firmed its predictions for a drier, and warmer, winter for Victoria.
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Climate Prediction Services manager Dr Andrew Watkins said conditions would be milder than recent years.
“For southern Australia, looking warmer than normal, particularly for southern Victoria, we are looking at odds of around 80 per cent of above normal temperatures,” Dr Watkins said.
“We are looking at drier than average conditions, for much of southern Australia, for Victoria it’s generally looking drier, through parts of the west of the state, possibly closer to normal, through parts of the east.”
He said the BoM was in an El Nino watch.
“The odds are still around 50 per cent, or double the normal chance, and if we do get an El Nino, it will certainly dry things out, during the winter, possibly into the spring as well.”
But he said while it was too early to give an outlook for spring, predictions would become clearer soon.
“Once you get into winter, you tend to be a little more locked into those patterns particularly those patterns, which drive us from the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
“At the moment, you would be expecting spring to be possibly be a bit drier, at the moment, than in the west, a little warmer as well, but it’s a little bit early to tell.”
Senior BoM forecaster Scott Williams said Ballarat had its coldest morning for 11 years, at minus three degrees.
“We have seen winter arrive, slightly earlier this year.
“What we are going to see is a series of frosty nights, particularly inland, and they will last through the weekend, peaking on the weekend.”
There would be a long run of frosts, under a large high pressure system, which followed a cold front.
