Dr Bailey said seasonal determinations for the system had increased from zero to five percent.
“January inflows into the Murray system were higher than estimated and the inflows forecast for February have increased,” Dr Bailey said.
“Recent rainfall along the Murray also reduced losses.
“A seasonal determination for low-reliability water shares means the Murray system is holding strong reserves for 2017/18.”
He said the last time low reliability shares were allocated in the Murray system was in the 2005-2006 irrigation season.
The 100 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS), announced previously, remained in effect.
Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems stayed at 100pc HRWS.
The Broken, Campaspe and Bullarook systems remained at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.
"The system will still need water to flow into the dams during 2017/18 to announce maximum seasonal determinations for high-reliability water shares,” Dr Bailey said.
While also experiencing recent resource improvement, the seasonal determination in the Goulburn system remained at 100 per cent HRWS.
“The improvement in the Goulburn system was similar to the Murray system,” Dr Bailey said.
“The shortfall to a seasonal determination for low-reliability water shares in 2016/17 is now about 430 gigalitres.”