CHRISTMAS comes but once a year, although producers have had their presents many times over throughout 2016 with cattle prices reaching all time highs, and sheep and lamb prices fairly stable at high levels.
Readers of the Stock & Land will have seen our excellent “Weaner Sale Wrap”. I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had about these annual sales. The topics have generally been, prices and competition.
These sales are considered the benchmark for the ensuing year, and providing seasons track a normal pattern, prices at the January sales give the industry a very good guide.
After a lengthy conversation with my colleague, Murray Arnel, The nuts and bolts are as follows.
It is expected that supply will be similar to that of 2016, but there were be fewer lightweight calves offered. Because of the huge spring, experienced by all of the eastern seaboard, cattle will weigh on average, 30-50 kilograms liveweight more.
What will this extra weight do to competition? These sales can rely heavily on competition from northern New South Wales, and even southern Queensland. Most of this competition is for lighter weight steers to background for future sales to feedlots. The extra weight may put pay to some of this competition.
However, what needs to be considered too, is the overall lack of cattle in Australia. Will feedlots have to lift their input weight in order to secure enough supply for later in 2017.
There is a lot of grass available in the short term, although hot weather may see that change.
However, there is an over abundance of grass, silage and grain that will fill any gap, if needed. Also, this summer, most dams are full, so water will not be an issue for most farmers.
Considering the extra weight available this coming January, buyers will need to look carefully at their normal fattening programs.
Even though the Dollar spend may be higher, the equality, and extra weight, should see steers turned off earlier, or heavier.
Therefore the producers returns should be earlier or high enough to create a good margin.
These sales are not only steers, but heifers, cows and calves, and joined females.
Once again, the dollar spend may be higher than many would like to pay, but returns here will follow the same guide lines of steers.
I don’t believe their is a better time for breeders to regain numbers in their herds. While the payment cheque may be large, the cattle will be better finished.
Will competition be as good as other years? Both Murray and I know that regular buyers target these sales, especially to seek the breeding they know, and they save themselves for these sales.
When I talk of these sales, I am including the feature sales that follow through February, March and April too.
Prices of finished cattle into the future remain a bit of a mystery, so what better opportunity to shorten your selling period by buying some of these featured cattle.
Buy early, buy right, and sell earlier than normal.
We may not know what prices will be going into 2018, so buy the right cattle and get them away in spring or early summer.
To all of you who I have not seen over the past couple of weeks, and to those I have not personally spoken to, have a very Merry Christmas!
