NORTHERN croppers are anxiously watching the prospects of a rain band forecast to deliver rain to southern Queensland and northern NSW this week.
The winter planting window is rapidly closing, especially for the crop with the best gross margins at present, chickpeas.
News from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is promising for the medium term, with much of the northern cropping belt having a whopping 80pc chance of exceeding average rainfall for June to August.
However, farmers are worried it may not arrive in time, a point echoed by BOM climatologist Andrew Watkins.
“It is definitely the latter two months that we expect to be wet, June is less clear cut.”
Commodity trader with Emerald Grain Toowoomba Andrew Jurgs said the rainfall over the weekend would shape the region’s winter crop.
“There’s a fair bit hinging on this rain event,” he said.
“We have had planting of wheat, barley and in particular chickpeas and there is still a reasonable planting window left, but yield potential will start to diminish if there is not a break by mid-June.”
Mr Jurgs said growers on the Darling Downs proper were more flexible and were comfortable with conserving moisture for a summer crop, but further out into the western Downs and the southern Queensland border region he said farmers wanted to plant a winter crop.
“They will give themselves every opportunity to get something in, especially with chickpea prices so high, they will be the priority crop for sure.”
Mr Jurgs said in general in the south-west of Queensland there had been a dry summer, followed by the current dry autumn.
Weemelah, northern NSW and NSW Farmers Association grains committee member Rob Eassie said chickpeas had been deep sown in the area.
“They have been deep planted from 15 to 18cm, which is the limits of most planters, they are waiting for some moisture to bring the crop up, so there’s a lot at stake this weekend.”
He said he had not begun planting yet, but would start next week regardless.
“If it rains we can plant the chickpeas shallow, if not we will deep plant.”
“You start to get a yield penalty on chickpeas from mid June onwards, but that is offset by the high prices.”
Mr Eassie said he was surprised at the likely cereal acreage in his area.
“Surprisingly enough the appetite for cereals is there, given the price difference you’d think people would look for chickpeas wherever possible.”
“This year, I’m less interested in rotations but rather gross margins where chickpeas are miles in front.”
Rob Drewitt, general manager at seed sales business Grainland, Moree, said accessing seed was one hurdle to growers putting in more chickpeas.
“It’s very hard to source seed, we’ve had enquiry from as far down as Deniliquin and right up into Queensland.”
He said in his local area farmers who did not have crop planted were looking at switching from long season to short season varieties.
“Guys are switching to lines like Spitfire and Gauntlet rather than those longer season types.”
Forecasts at present are for falls of 25-50mm over southern Queensland and northern NSW.
Mr Jurgs said farmers would be more comfortable with a rain of 50mm or more, but said anything over 25mm would be invaluable.
Dr Watkins said moisture was present in critical zones in Australia’s north-west at present.
“It is just a matter of getting the right weather patterns to drag it to the northern cropping zone, but they can take heart that at least there is the moisture about.”
