AUSTRALIA has submitted its intend actions to reduce emissions ahead of the Paris conference with a target of 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
If Australia’s first carbon auctions in April are any indication, the land sector will be major contributors to this task.
As part of this process the Australian Government awarded $660 million to 144 projects ranging from forest management, on-farm tree planting, to waste management, and soil carbon and methane capture.
At the same time the Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper seeks to build a more profitable agriculture sector and increase its role in the Australian economy.
Can our farming landscapes sequester carbon and at the same time support expanded food and fibre exports to the strongly growing markets such as Asia?
CSIRO is about to release a landmark study which can help us decide how we want to answer these questions.
In the Australian National Outlook study, CSIRO and its partners have explored a range of possible trajectories over the next 40 years for Australia’s land, water, energy sectors in relation to national and global drivers – such as population growth, changing market demands, technical innovation, productivity improvements, climate change and carbon mitigation action.
This report demonstrates strong growth prospects for Australia’s agri-food exports (at least 50 per cent by 2050) provided long term productivity improvements, in line with historical rates, can be maintained.
The report also identifies significant opportunities for Australia’s rural landscapes to sequester carbon in forests and biodiversity plantings while sustaining this growth in food production. In areas of low agricultural productivity, such re-vegetation is likely to be competitive with less intensive, less profitable, agricultural activities provided global action on climate change incentivises a value on carbon.
So the study demonstrates a possibility for a win-win situation for rural land. Growth in agri-food exports AND new income sources for rural landholders through carbon farming on less productive land.
The key reason for this is that despite land allocation to greenhouse gas abatement activities there is little change projected in the use of Australia’s most productive agricultural land - that is, the third of agricultural land that accounts for 75 per cent of output value. The study also anticipates greater demand for arable land globally due to urbanisation, climate pressures on production, water scarcity and soil degradation.
Policy settings will ultimately drive different outcomes for carbon sequestration, native habitat and water - even with the same level of abatement incentive. In a scenario with broad-based abatement and payments for carbon farming around of A$40-60 per tonne of CO2e by 2030, this study suggests we can enrich our economy and regional communities, while helping to meet global food, fibre, and energy needs. Achieving the win-win outcome is critically dependent on our ability to improve efficiencies and innovate in the agricultural sector. Sustained productivity rise will create options and choices for Australia, but failing to sustain productivity rises will seriously undermine these future choices as well as limit our options.
It is entirely plausible the gap between these figures and today’s price of $14 a tonne can close over the coming decades. It will take time and progress on global action will have a big influence on the speed and nature of the trajectories.
The central consideration of the energy-food-water nexus is water. Demand for water in Australia, from all sources, is projected to double by 2050 in the Australian National Outlook study. This growth can be met while enhancing non-agricultural water security, without increasing pressure on water-limited catchments, through water recycling, desalination and integrated catchment management. The rub with new carbon farming is that without appropriate regulation and planning (some of which is already in place) it accounts for more than a quarter of total national water use in 2050.
The links with energy policy will also be crucial as desalination needs to use low emissions technologies. The devil will be in the detail as outcomes will be heavily influenced by institutional settings: foresight and planning are necessary to navigate the choices in an informed manner and mitigate unintended consequences while maximising societal benefits
What the Australian National Outlook 2015 does is provide government, industry and the community with a suite of possible futures, and an understanding of the linkages between food, energy and environmental needs. These are essential tools in the design of policy settings and identification of the innovation needs for a prosperous and environmentally sustainable Australia.
Increased water use, growth of bioenergy, expansion of carbon forests on lower productivity agricultural land, lifting Australia’s agri-food exports and the linking of conservation and carbon farming are sure to solicit vigorous discussion.
The good news is Australia’s food and agriculture sector is well placed to both prosper and contribute to environmental solutions provided we step-up as a nation to the innovation challenges.
Australian National Outlook 2015 is the most comprehensive quantitative analysis of the complex interactions between economic growth, energy-food-water use, environmental outcomes and living standards ever undertaken in Australia - it will be released later this year.
