RAINFALL for December 2015 to February 2016 is forecast to be above average across many parts of the country.
That was the good news delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) yesterday when it released its latest three-month seasonal outlook.
The outlook says December temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern Australia, while rainfall is likely to be above average across southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, parts of the interior and southwestern Australia.
The summer outlook indicates below-average rainfall is likely across the northwest and Cape York Peninsula, and wetter across parts of the east.
The daytime temperature outlook is patchy, with warmer days likely in parts of the west and north, while parts of the southeast are likely to be cooler.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer across most of the country except the southeast.
Current climate influences include a combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, a decaying positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and very warm Indian Ocean temperatures.
BoM reports a strong El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is very likely to persist into early 2016.
"The El Niño influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in the past depending on how quickly the El Niño event breaks down," BoM reports.
"However, on average an El Niño summer brings lower than normal rainfall across northern Queensland with a later start to the wet season, and a slight drying influence across the southeast.
"Conversely, inland WA often sees an increased chance of rainfall at this time of year under El Niño.
"A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a strong El Niño in place have meant September and October have both been drier than average, which means the Australian landscape is not well buffered with moisture in the lead up to summer.
"Typically an IOD event decays in November or early December as the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, changing the wind patterns.
"Once this occurs, the two dominating climate drivers are expected to be El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the warm waters across the central and southern Indian Ocean.
"These competing climate drivers may ease the outlook back towards an above-average rainfall outlook."
