US agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland has successfully confused everyone about its intentions.
Not long after then treasurer Joe Hockey vetoed its $3 billion bid for local grains handler GrainCorp, ADM made public statements that its takeover ambitions had not waned. But it's understood ADM has been putting out the feelers for a possible exit.
Sources told The Australian Financial Review's Street Talk the Illinois-based company has sounded out interest from some big Asian fund managers such as Temasek and GIC over a potential block trade for its 19.9 per cent stake in GrainCorp in recent weeks.
Strategically the logic of a tie-up between ADM and GrainCorp hasn't changed and the huge drop in the Australian dollar against the US dollar since the deal was blocked in 2013 makes a takeover more compelling financially.
Not long after Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister murmurs started that the ADM camp was optimistic the former investment banker's administration would be amenable to a deal. Which is at odds with suggestions ADM may be shopping its stake around.
Maybe the company is weighing up other investment options (such as a minority stake in Glencore's grain business) and is sick of having its capital tied up when there is no guarantee of receiving new Treasurer Scott Morrison's blessing.
The lesson of Fonterra and Bega Cheese could be instructive.
The Kiwi dairy giant was widely known to harbour takeover ambitions for Bega when it built its 9 per cent stake in the NSW-based company.
But, as flagged by Street Talk, Fonterra turned around and dumped its stake on Friday. Goldman Sachs executed the trade.
An ADM exit would likely wreak havoc on GrainCorp's share price.
The company is in the middle of intensive capital investment and dry conditions are weighing on east coast grain volumes.
There is a partial takeover premium built into the stock that would surely unwind if its suitor left the register.
