Heat on WA crop as yield estimates drop

In its early September crop report, the Grains Industry Association of WA had estimated total grain production could reach 15.135 million tonnes.

But dry and windy conditions has seen this month's crop report revise that to 14.867mt.

Industry sources believe it could be significantly lower than that with figures below 14mt being thrown around.

Harvest has started in some areas of WA, however not in earnest as yet.

Continuing dry conditions will see a scale up of harvesting activity, particularly in the northern Wheatbelt.

An early harvest is bad news for some in the Kwinana zone particularly, but in the Geraldton and Esperance zones, crops are mature enough to cope with the change in weather without too much of an affect on yield.

At Badgingarra, John Scotney said he would have preferred an extra 15 millimetres of rain to temperatures in the mid-30s over the past week.

"It's pretty hot today (Friday)," he said.

"It has certainly turned things in the last week or two.

"Late last week turned a lot of crops pretty quickly, probably a bit too quickly."

While he said starting harvest in October was proving more common these days, some later sown crops needed an extra week or two grace period from the heat.

"It's been more common than not in the last few years for us to start early," he said.

"We would've never have considered starting in October normally, but we will certainly be harvesting by the end of October this year and last year we were harvesting by the middle of October."

Mr Scotney said canola that went in the ground in late April would be swathed in the next week as the remaining green canola needed some more time to turn.

"We've still got green pastures but I expect by the end of next week they will be pretty much finished off," he said.

"Wheat is still green on the better country and browning on the lighter country.

"Two weeks ago I would've said the crops look excellent and now I'm saying it's probably looking average to a bit below because of what the heat has done.

"We had a pretty kind August and September, but the hot week has hit it hard.

"Rain would be useful in the next week for filling grain but after that I think we'll be hoping it doesn't rain.

"We've been generally pretty disappointed with the last half of September and it would've trimmed a lot off most (yield) averages."

At Arthur River, Sam Burgess is not optimistic about the quality of his crops after a very dry cropping season and the heat that has come in the past fortnight.

"Today (Friday) it's about 32?C and blowing about 35 kilometres per hour," he said.

"That's turning the crops very quickly.

"It'll be a fortnight to three weeks and I think things will be moving.

"We're all seeing a huge change and it's rapidly changing every day."

Mr Burgess said he would be swathing late this week and early next week, with harvest to follow a fortnight after.

"The quality of the grain is going to be down," he said.

"I think even if we get a rain in the next 10 days it'll be too late.

"A lot of the barley around the place is starting to go white which is a sign they've dried right out and we'll probably get high screenings."

He said many late sown crops were not far enough along to be ready for the heat yet, with poorly developed grain, or none at all a reality.

"There's a lot of the crop that's not even out of the boot yet and I don't think they will come to anything," Mr Burgess said.

"Canola should be okay but down on yield and wheat, barley and oats are really suffering.

"I've just washed my contracts out, the oats aren't filling so we're cutting them for stock feed.

"It's hard when you've got good prices thrown at us and everything turns pear shaped."

At Salmon Gums however, things are looking much better, but Sam Guest is remaining conservative.

"Things can turn really quickly, but they're very good at the moment," he said.

The warmer weather will have most in his area beginning harvest in late October, with quality still good despite a dry September.

"A rain in September would've been awesome, but the quality is still there even though we've been touched a bit by frost," he said.

"We don't really know the extent yet other than in the gullies."

Harvest should start with barley for Mr Guest, with many in his region already swathing canola in preparation.

"It'll be fairly close between canola and barley," he said.

"We've got some later crops that are going to get pushed but all of the earlier, better established crops will be fine.

"Anything that was established and got going early will be okay but anything established late is going to get pushed a bit, but it shouldn't affect quality and yield too much."

In their GIWA Crop Report, authors Ian Longson and Alan Meldrum said the 15mt estimate had the potential to downgrade further "once the full impact of the dry spring, particularly in the Geraldton zone, and the impact of frosts in the Albany zone are known".

The pair hold concerns for grain quality and protein levels, particularly in crops where yield potential has been substantially reduced.

"This will apply principally to crops on the sandy soils districts along the west coast in the west Kwinana zone," the report said.

"The crops in the Lakes region and southern portions of the Albany zone are in very good condition with above average yields very likely.

"In contrast, winter rainfall has been well below average in the districts north of Kojonup through to Wagin and Williams.

"Crops in districts inland from Geraldton, from Yuna to Mullewa and south to Kalannie will produce above average yields on the back of good autumn rains.

"The Esperance zone is very likely to break crop yield and production records on the back of a very good season across the zone."

Landmark Geraldton agronomist Rob Alderman said there were some growers already harvesting canola in his region, but these were few and far between.

"But I wouldn't imagine most people would be into wheat in a serious way for two to three weeks," he said.

"I think the canola has been relatively high in oil content and to my knowledge that is all that has been harvested."

Mr Alderman said the warm temperatures had now finished off 95 per cent of crops.

"A little bit more rain in early September would've been nice but we certainly wouldn't want any rain now on those crops," he said.

"We had better moisture early on compared to a lot of places, so a lot of crop did go in early May and their maturity is okay for this time of year.

"All of the crops are brown now, there's nothing you drive past that is green.

"They started to turn probably about a fortnight ago when it started to get warm and everything has gone off really quickly."

Farm and General Esperance senior agronomist Andrew Heinrich said the region was looking "magnificent".

"Rain has continued throughout the season so things are looking good," he said.

"It has been warm but not too bad, we don't want any extreme heat at this point in time."

Harvest for many in his region would be between three to five weeks away according to Mr Heinrich.

"Early canola crops have been swathed now and we're getting ready for other crops as well," he said.

"The yield is looking very promising and there isn't any real weak spots in the district this year where normally we might have a weak spot in one area and not others.

"This year it's looking solid all the way through."

The Australian Grains Export Innovation Centre season outlook indicates high pressure systems in October will block any further cold front activity reaching south west WA according to agro-meteorologist David Stephens.

"Very warm Indian Ocean seawater temperatures to the south west have not been conducive for traditional north west cloud-band activity... through winter," Dr Stephens said.

"As we switch to the summer pattern in November this warm body of water will likely assist the development of thunderstorm activity during the harvest period from November to January."

WHILE the majority of headers are at the ready in most northern and South Coast districts to start harvest next week, mowers and hay balers already are in action.

Last week, farm employee Adrian Dabinett (left), pictured here with Perkins Farm Machinery Centre sales manager Brad Langford, was busy cutting a five tonne a hectare crop of Williams oats bound for the export hay market.

"It's the earliest start I ever seen in my 20 years in the hay industry," Mr Langford said.

"We have a lot of customers going because of the hot days and no September rain."

According to Mr Dabinett, who was using the first Krone triple mower in WA, enabling him to achieve a cut of more than 100ha in a 12-hour shift, he would normally start cutting in the second or third week of October.

"The hot days and the forecasts of more to come means we have to get the flowering crop cut as soon as possible," he said.

"Hot days are not the ideal recipe you want to make quality hay."